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The Persistence Characteristics of Output Growth in China: How Important is the Business Cycle?

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Abstract

Output growth volatility at the macroeconomic level reflects the impact of demand and supply-side shocks. These shocks differ in terms of the persistence of their impact on output growth with the former typically being responsible for cyclical fluctuations of the business cycle variety. This paper uses Spectral Density Analysis to decompose the persistence characteristics of output growth in China since 1953, including in its provinces and regions. An important finding is that the persistence characteristics of output growth changed dramatically in most provinces during the reform period to the extent that only a minority of output growth variance can be attributed to business cycle fluctuations. This finding points to a number of challenges for policy-makers, including questions over the expected effectiveness of using macroeconomic policies that are intended to smooth business cycle fluctuations when the nature of output growth volatility is considerably more complex.

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  • James Laurenceson, 2011. "The Persistence Characteristics of Output Growth in China: How Important is the Business Cycle?," Discussion Papers Series 430, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:430
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    3. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 133-179.
    4. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
    5. Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
    6. Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
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