The Persistence Characteristics of Output Growth in China: How Important is the Business Cycle?
Output growth volatility at the macroeconomic level reflects the impact of demand and supply-side shocks. These shocks differ in terms of the persistence of their impact on output growth with the former typically being responsible for cyclical fluctuations of the business cycle variety. This paper uses Spectral Density Analysis to decompose the persistence characteristics of output growth in China since 1953, including in its provinces and regions. An important finding is that the persistence characteristics of output growth changed dramatically in most provinces during the reform period to the extent that only a minority of output growth variance can be attributed to business cycle fluctuations. This finding points to a number of challenges for policy-makers, including questions over the expected effectiveness of using macroeconomic policies that are intended to smooth business cycle fluctuations when the nature of output growth volatility is considerably more complex.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: St. Lucia, Qld. 4072|
Phone: +61 7 3365 6570
Fax: +61 7 3365 7299
Web page: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Tom Doan, . "BQDODRAWS: RATS procedure to implement Monte Carlo draws from a VAR with Blanchard-Quah factorization," Statistical Software Components RTS00030, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Blanchard and Quah AER 1989," Statistical Software Components RTZ00017, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory C. Chow, 1993. "Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-842.
- Robert E. Hall, 2005.
"Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole,
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 133-179.
- Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 11651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
- Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995.
"Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
- Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003.
"International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
- Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2004. "International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence," Macroeconomics 0402016, EconWPA.
- Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2002. "International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence," Working Papers 2002-17, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SOE IT)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.