The Persistence Characteristics of Output Growth in China: How Important is the Business Cycle?
Output growth volatility at the macroeconomic level reflects the impact of demand and supply-side shocks. These shocks differ in terms of the persistence of their impact on output growth with the former typically being responsible for cyclical fluctuations of the business cycle variety. This paper uses Spectral Density Analysis to decompose the persistence characteristics of output growth in China since 1953, including in its provinces and regions. An important finding is that the persistence characteristics of output growth changed dramatically in most provinces during the reform period to the extent that only a minority of output growth variance can be attributed to business cycle fluctuations. This finding points to a number of challenges for policy-makers, including questions over the expected effectiveness of using macroeconomic policies that are intended to smooth business cycle fluctuations when the nature of output growth volatility is considerably more complex.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 7 3365 6570
Fax: +61 7 3365 7299
Web page: http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2002.
"International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence,"
2002-17, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
- Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
- Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2004. "International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence," Macroeconomics 0402016, EconWPA.
- King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1996.
"Money, Prices, Interest Rates and the Business Cycle,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 35-53, February.
- Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance,"
497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chow, Gregory C, 1993.
"Capital Formation and Economic Growth in China,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 809-42, August.
- Lin, Justin Yifu, 1992. "Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 34-51, March.
- Robert E. Hall, 2005.
"Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
11651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Separating the business cycle from other economic fluctuations," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 133-179.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SOE IT)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.