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Evolutionary Microeconomics and the Theory of Expectations

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Abstract

This paper sketches a framework for the analysis of expectations in an evolutionary microeconomics. The core proposition is that expectations form a network structure, and that the geometry of that network will provide a suitable guide as to the dynamical behaviour of that network. It is a development towards a theory of the computational processes that construct the data set of expectations. The role of probability theory is examined in this context. Two key issues will be explored: (1) on the nature and stability of expectations when they form as a complex network; and (2), the way in which this may be modelled within a multi-agent simulation platform. It is argued that multi-agent simulation (a-life) techniques provide an expedient analytical environment to study the dynamic nature of mass expectations, as generated or produced objects, in a way that bridges micro and macroeconomics.

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  • Dr Jason Potts, 2000. "Evolutionary Microeconomics and the Theory of Expectations," Discussion Papers Series 270, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:270
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    File URL: http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/eserv/UQ:11070/DP270Feb00.pdf
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    1. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters,in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bausor, Randall, 1983. "The Rational-Expectations Hypothesis and the Epistemics of Time," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, March.
    3. Earl, Peter E, 1990. "Economics and Psychology: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 718-755, September.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1993. "On Designing Economic Agents That Behave Like Human Agents," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    6. Peter E. Earl, 1989. "Monetary Scenarios," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 158.
    7. Cooper, Arnold C. & Folta, Timothy B. & Woo, Carolyn, 1995. "Entrepreneurial information search," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-120, March.
    8. Paul Davidson, 1991. "Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 129-143, Winter.
    9. David Dequech, 1999. "Expectations and Confidence under Uncertainty," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 415-430, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bibiana Lanzilotta Mernies, 2016. "Taxonomia y Dinamica de las Expectativas Economicas de los Empresarios Industriales en Uruguay. Un Analisis de Conglomerados," REVISTA DE ECONOM√ćA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, vol. 17(2), pages 229-256, February.

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