IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qeh/qehwps/qehwps56.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-Series Econometrics of the Real and Financial Effects of Capital Flows: Selected Cases in Africa and Southern Asia

Author

Listed:
  • J Benson Durham

Abstract

Few studies address the real effects of international capital flows. Instead of a cross-sectional design, this study exclusively examines time-series data from nine countries. Four cases - Nigeria, Zimbabwe, India, and Pakistan - produce evidence that either FDI or FPI adversely affect growth or savings rates, while two cases produce some evidence of a benevolent effect - Uganda and Sri Lanka. The data for Kenya, Zambia, and Bangladesh largely produce ambiguous results, and in fact, the vast majority of models across all cases indicate no significant relation. The preponderance of negative effects is largely consistent with the notion that lower income countries lack sufficient 'absorptive capacity' to harness foreign investment.

Suggested Citation

  • J Benson Durham, "undated". "Time-Series Econometrics of the Real and Financial Effects of Capital Flows: Selected Cases in Africa and Southern Asia," QEH Working Papers qehwps56, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps56
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://workingpapers.qeh.ox.ac.uk/RePEc/qeh/qehwps/qehwps56.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    2. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    3. Stanley Fischer, 1999. "On the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 85-104, Fall.
    4. Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    5. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    6. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    7. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps53, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    8. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1992. "What Explains Developing Country Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Adam, Christopher, 1999. "Financial Liberalisation and Currency Demand in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(3), pages 268-306, October.
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
    15. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Real Effects of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," QEH Working Papers qehwps52, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    16. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects: Some Sensitivity Analyses," QEH Working Papers qehwps51, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    17. Henry, Peter Blair, 2000. "Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 301-334.
    18. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    19. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carike Claassen & Elsabé Loots & Henri Bezuidenhout, 2011. "Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Africa," Working Papers 261, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    2. Mebratu Seyoum & Renshui Wu & Jihong Lin, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Case of Developing African Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 45-64, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J Benson Durham, "undated". "A Survey of the Econometric Literature on the Real Effects of International Capital Flows in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps50, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    2. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Real Effects of Cross-Border Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," QEH Working Papers qehwps52, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    3. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Econometrics of the Effects of Stock Market Development on Growth and Private Investment in Lower Income Countries," QEH Working Papers qehwps53, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    4. Durham, J.B.J. Benson, 2004. "Absorptive capacity and the effects of foreign direct investment and equity foreign portfolio investment on economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 285-306, April.
    5. J Benson Durham, "undated". "Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects: Some Sensitivity Analyses," QEH Working Papers qehwps51, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    6. Winston Moore, 2014. "Managing The Process Of Removing Capital Controls: What Does The Literature Suggest?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 209-237, April.
    7. Benson Durham, J., 2002. "The effects of stock market development on growth and private investment in lower-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-232, September.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    9. J. Benson Durham, 2003. "Foreign portfolio investment, foreign bank lending, and economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 757, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Chari, Anusha & Blair Henry, Peter, 2008. "Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 636-655, March.
    11. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    12. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2016. "The relation between sovereign credit rating revisions and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-100.
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2002. "Research in emerging markets finance: looking to the future," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 429-448, December.
    14. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    15. Zaiter Lahimer, Mahjouba, 2011. "L’impact des entrées de capitaux privés sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/7670 edited by Sterdyniak, Henri.
    16. Das, Mitali & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2003. "Income inequality: the aftermath of stock market liberalization in emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 217-248, February.
    17. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2004. "Is the Invisible Hand Discerning or Indiscriminate? Investment and Stock Prices in the Aftermath of Capital Account Liberalizations," NBER Working Papers 10318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Stefanie Kleimeier & Roald Versteeg, 2010. "Project finance as a driver of economic growth in low‐income countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 49-59, April.
    19. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, October.
    20. Sheng‐Syan Chen & Robin K. Chou & Shu‐Fen Chou, 2009. "The Impact of Investment Opportunities and Free Cash Flow on Financial Liberalization:A Cross‐Firm Analysis of Emerging Economies," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 543-566, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qeh:qehwps:qehwps56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IT Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/qehoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.