IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/99595.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lead-lag and relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a wavelet analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Tursoy, Turgut
  • Mar'i, Muhammad

Abstract

The study investigates the relationship between money supply and inflation and Turkey by employing wavelet analysis, mainly continuous wavelet analysis, cross wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence and phase-difference, for the period from 1987 to 2019. Our main finding confirms the modern quantity theory of money about the existence of a relationship between inflation and money supply in the short-run and long-run, and also confirms the traditional quantity theory of money about the existence of a relationship in the long run. The phase difference confirms the existence of a bidirectional relationship between money supply and inflation. The result is consistent with both the traditional quantity theory of money in the long run and the modern quantity theory of money in the short-run and long-run in terms of the existence of a relationship between money supply and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tursoy, Turgut & Mar'i, Muhammad, 2020. "Lead-lag and relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," MPRA Paper 99595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/99595/1/MPRA_paper_99595.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    2. Nguyen, Van Bon, 2015. "Effects of fi scal defi cit and money M2 supply on inflation: Evidence from selected economies of Asia," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 49-53.
    3. Jiang, Chun & Chang, Tsangyao & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2015. "Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-261.
    4. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    5. Loh, Lixia, 2013. "Co-movement of Asia-Pacific with European and US stock market returns: A cross-time-frequency analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-13.
    6. António Rua, 2012. "Money Growth and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Time-Frequency View," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(6), pages 875-885, December.
    7. Chi-Wei Su & Jiao-Jiao Fan & Hsu-Ling Chang & Xiao-Lin Li, 2016. "Is there Causal Relationship between Money Supply Growth and Inflation in China? Evidence from Quantity Theory of Money," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 702-719, August.
    8. Abdullah AL-Mutairi & Sulaiman Al-Abduljader & Kamal Naser, 2020. "Determinants of Inflation in Kuwait," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(3), pages 19-34, July-Sept.
    9. Gençay, Ramazan & Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon J., 2001. "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796708.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oguzhan Cepni & Yavuz Selim Hacihasanoglu & Muhammed Hasan Yilmaz, 2020. "Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 109-131.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.
    2. Caraiani, Petre, 2015. "Estimating DSGE models across time and frequency," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 33-49.
    3. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Interdependence between the bond markets of CEEC-3 and Germany: A wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 124-138.
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Boryana Bogdanova, 2014. "Measuring the degree of integration within a group of stock markets," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 26-46.
    6. Wen-Yi CHEN & Yu-Hui LIN, 2016. "Co-Movement of Healthcare Financing in OECD Countries: Evidence from Discrete Wavelet Analyses," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 40-56, September.
    7. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2021. "Money and inflation in inflation-targeting regimes – new evidence from time–frequency analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 17-44, January.
    8. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weidong, 2018. "Wavelet analysis of the co-movement and lead–lag effect among multi-markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 489-499.
    9. Jiang, Chun & Chang, Tsangyao & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2015. "Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-261.
    10. Funashima, Yoshito, 2017. "Time-varying leads and lags across frequencies using a continuous wavelet transform approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 24-28.
    11. Jiang, Zhuhua & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2020. "Dynamic co-movement between oil and stock markets in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries: Two types of wavelet analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Ferrer, Román & Bolós, Vicente J. & Benítez, Rafael, 2016. "Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Al Rababa’a, Abdel Razzaq & Alomari, Mohammad & McMillan, David, 2021. "Multiscale stock-bond correlation: Implications for risk management," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    16. Cheng-Feng Wu & Fangjhy Li & Hsin-Pei Hsueh & Chien-Ming Wang & Meng-Chen Lin & Tsangyao Chang, 2020. "A Dynamic Relationship between Environmental Degradation, Healthcare Expenditure and Economic Growth in Wavelet Analysis: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, February.
    17. Thomas Conlon & Brian M. Lucey & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2018. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? A wavelet time-scale perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 317-345, August.
    18. Firouzi, Shahrokh & Wang, Xiangning, 2021. "The interrelationship between order flow, exchange rate, and the role of American economic news," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Yingying XU & Zhixin LIU & Jaime ORTIZ, 2018. "Actual and Expected Inflation in the U.S.: A Time-Frequency View," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 42-62, December.
    20. Hicham Ayad, 2020. "Money Supply, Inflation and Economic Growth: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 65(2), pages 29-45, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money supply; inflation; wavelet analysis; Turkey; the quantity theory of money.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.