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Empirical evidence of systemic tail risk premium in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange


  • Kouadio, Jean Joel
  • Mwamba, Muteba
  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo


This paper assesses the impact of systematic tail risk of stocks, defined as a stock’s exposure to market tail events, on the cross section returns of an emerging stock exchange, especially the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) from January 2002 through June 2018. If stock market investors are crash-averse, then holding stocks that experience high exposure to market tail events should be rewarded with a premium. The paper therefore sets out to determine whether high exposure to market tail events translates into higher returns of stocks traded on the JSE. To achieve this objective, the study extends on the work of Chabi-Yo, Ruenzi and Weigert (2015) based on extreme value theory (EVT) and copula models as well as the traditional asset pricing tools of portfolio formation and cross-sectional regressions. The results of the empirical analysis support the existence of a systematic tail risk premium in the JSE. Interestingly, the effect of systematic tail risk on the cross section of JSE returns is time-varying and independent from that of risk measures such as beta and downside beta and firm characteristics such as book-to-market (BTM) ratio, size and past returns. In addition, the study provides evidence on the impact of financial crises on crash aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Kouadio, Jean Joel & Mwamba, Muteba & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2019. "Empirical evidence of systemic tail risk premium in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 96570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96570

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2014. "Editor's Choice Tail Risk and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2841-2871.
    2. Post, Thierry & van Vliet, Pim, 2006. "Downside risk and asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 823-849, March.
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    4. repec:bla:rdevec:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:e204-e219 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Abstract: Capital Market Equilibrium in a Mean-Lower Partial Moment Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 635-635, November.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Blume, Marshall E, 1970. "Portfolio Theory: A Step Toward Its Practical Application," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 152-173, April.
    8. Bawa, Vijay S. & Lindenberg, Eric B., 1977. "Capital market equilibrium in a mean-lower partial moment framework," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 189-200, November.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    10. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2017. "Assessing the readiness of the BRICS grouping for mutually beneficial financial integration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 204-219, November.
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    More about this item


    systematic tail risk; stock exchange; extreme value theory; copula;

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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