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An Evaluation of Singular Spectrum Analysis-Based Seasonal Adjustment

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  • Leon, Costas

Abstract

In this paper, the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is presented and applied in the US air traffic emplacements for the period Jan. 1954 – Sept. 2011. I decompose the US air traffic emplacements in trend, cycle, seasonal and noise components. In turn, I apply several spectral criteria in order to evaluate the SSA as a seasonal adjustment filter. SSA detects, beyond trend, strong cycles and seasonal components and leaves as a residual a GARCH process. SSA performs quite well as a seasonal adjustment mechanism in the case of the GARCH process but it performs even better in the case of a simulated white noise process. SSA is a serious candidate in economics in dealing with filtering, denoising, smoothing and seasonal adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon, Costas, 2018. "An Evaluation of Singular Spectrum Analysis-Based Seasonal Adjustment," MPRA Paper 84594, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:84594
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/84594/1/MPRA_paper_84594.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christina Beneki & Bruno Eeckels & Costas Leon, 2012. "Signal Extraction and Forecasting of the UK Tourism Income Time Series: A Singular Spectrum Analysis Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 391-400, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Singular Spectrum Analysis; Seasonal Adjustment; Spectral Analysis; Economic Time Series; Air Traffic Emplacements.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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