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Extreme Risk Value and Dependence Structure of the China Securities Index 300

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  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung
  • Ding, Yue
  • Pang, Tianxiao

Abstract

A time-varying copulas–conditional value at risk (CVaR) model is estimated to analyze the extreme risk value and dependence structure of the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300) and index futures portfolios. The goodness-of-fit test as well as the in-sample and out-of-sample tests show that time-varying copulas outperform constant copulas. Specifically, the Student’s t, normal, Plackett, and the rotated Gumbel copulas outperform the rotated Clayton copulas.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Ding, Yue & Pang, Tianxiao, 2017. "Extreme Risk Value and Dependence Structure of the China Securities Index 300," MPRA Paper 80556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80556
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Creal, Drew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 552-563.
    2. Lorán Chollete & Andréas Heinen & Alfonso Valdesogo, 2009. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime-switching Copula," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(4), pages 437-480, Fall.
    3. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    4. Douglas Rivers & Quang Vuong, 2002. "Model selection tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 1-39, June.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CVaR model; Time-varying copulas.;

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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