IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/7304.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Assessment of income distribution and a hypothetical flat tax reform in Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Lelkes, Orsolya
  • Benedek, Dora

Abstract

The paper presents evidence on the effects of taxes and benefits on household incomes in Hungary referring to the 2006 system and a hypothetical flat tax reform. For this, a microsimulation model is used, which is based on a matched sample of an income and a consumption survey and administrative tax records. The Hungarian budget receives more revenues from VAT than from PIT. This has major implications on equity, as while PIT is progressive, VAT is regressive, imposing a higher tax burden on low-income households. We highlight the importance of tax allowances. The absolute amount of total tax allowances tends to increase with income, and the share of allowances within total incomes is around 5-7% in all income groups, except the top fifth, where it declines. Targeting is thus inadequate, and it is especially so in case of child support. Family tax allowance reaches the bottom decile only to a limited extent. This is in sharp contrast with the universal child benefit, which is well targeted to the poorest. The second part explores the likely impact of the introduction of a flat tax, where VAT and PIT rates are set at 20%, and a tax free bracket for low incomes is kept. We show that a budget neutral solution would have a largely regressive effect, where 70% of the population would lose, with a minority on the top of the distribution gaining.

Suggested Citation

  • Lelkes, Orsolya & Benedek, Dora, 2007. "Assessment of income distribution and a hypothetical flat tax reform in Hungary," MPRA Paper 7304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7304/1/MPRA_paper_7304.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lelkes, Orsolya, 2006. "Tasting freedom: Happiness, religion and economic transition," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 173-194, February.
    2. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1976. "The design of tax structure: Direct versus indirect taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 55-75.
    3. Alm, James, 1996. "What Is an "Optimal'"Tax System?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(1), pages 117-33, March.
    4. Anna Ivanova & Michael Keen & Alexander Klemm, 2005. "The Russian ‘flat tax’ reform [‘Income tax evasion: A theoretical analysis’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(43), pages 398-444.
    5. Lelkes, Orsolya, 2006. "Tasting freedom: Happiness, religion and economic transition," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 173-194, February.
    6. Michael F. Förster & Istvàn György Tòth, 1997. "Poverty, inequalities and social policies in the Visegrad countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(2), pages 505-509, November.
    7. Gerry Redmond, 1999. "Incomes, incentives and the growth of means-testing in Hungary," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 77-99, March.
    8. O'Donoghue, Cathal & Sutherland, Holly & Immervoll, Herwig, 1999. "An introduction to EUROMOD," EUROMOD Working Papers EM0/99, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    9. Saez, Emmanuel, 2002. "The desirability of commodity taxation under non-linear income taxation and heterogeneous tastes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 217-230, February.
    10. Orsolya Lelkes, 2007. "Research Note - Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Models In Eastern Europe," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 54-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peichl, Andreas & Paulus, Alari, 2008. "Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe on equity and efficiency," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-4, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Norbert Švarda & Matúš Senaj & Michal Horváth & Zuzana Siebertová, 2015. "The End of the Flat Tax Experiment in Slovakia," Discussion Papers 33, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    3. Paulus, Alari & Lelkes, Orsolya & Kump, Nataša & Cok, Mitja & Hegedus, Péter & Szivós, Péter & Võrk, Andres & Kralik, Silja, 2009. "Flat tax reform in Eastern Europe: a comparative analysis of alternative scenarios in Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia, using EUROMOD," EUROMOD Working Papers EM9/09, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Paulus, Alari & Peichl, Andreas, 2009. "Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 620-636, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lelkes, Orsolya & Benedek, Dóra, 2006. "A magyarországi jövedelem-újraelosztás és egy egykulcsos adóreform vizsgálata mikroszimulációs modellel [An examination of income redistribution in Hungary and single-rate tax reform, using a micro," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 604-623.
    2. John T. Revesz, 2014. "A computational model of optimal commodity taxation," Public Finance Research Papers 4, Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome.
    3. John T. Revesz, 2014. "A Numerical Model of Optimal Differentiated Indirect Taxation," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 211(4), pages 9-66, December.
    4. Louis Kaplow, 2011. "An Optimal Tax System," NBER Working Papers 17214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alex Rees-Jones & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2018. "Taxing Humans: Pitfalls of the Mechanism Design Approach and Potential Resolutions," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 107-133.
    6. Carlos E. da Costa & Iván Werning, 2008. "On the Optimality of the Friedman Rule with Heterogeneous Agents and Nonlinear Income Taxation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 82-112, February.
    7. Xavier Ruiz del Portal, 2020. "Two reasons for not using commodity taxation in the presence of an optimal income tax," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 232(1), pages 9-28, March.
    8. Yunmin Chen & Brian Chi-ang Lin & John E. Anderson, 2016. "Environmental Sustainability And The Greened Samuelson Rule," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 482-496, July.
    9. Opfinger, Matthias & Gundlach, Erich, 2011. "Religiosity as a determinant of happiness," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 48360, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Roger Gordon, 2004. "Taxation of Interest Income," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(1), pages 5-15, January.
    11. Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Violeta Vulovic & Yongzheng Liu, 2011. "Direct versus Indirect Taxation: Trends, Theory, and Economic Significance," Chapters, in: Emilio Albi & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (ed.), The Elgar Guide to Tax Systems, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Jacobs, Bas & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Redistribution and pollution taxes with non-linear Engel curves," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 198-226.
    13. Jukka Pirttilä & Ilpo Suoniemi, 2014. "Public Provision, Commodity Demand, and Hours of Work: An Empirical Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(4), pages 1044-1067, October.
    14. Eddy Zanoutene, 2023. "Scale‐dependent and risky returns to savings: Consequences for optimal capital taxation," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 25(3), pages 532-569, June.
    15. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2012. "Optimal Labor Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 18521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Antoine BozioBy & Carl Emmerson & Cormac O’Dea & Gemma Tetlow, 2017. "Do the rich save more? Evidence from linked survey and administrative data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1101-1119.
    17. Saez, Emmanuel, 2004. "Direct or indirect tax instruments for redistribution: short-run versus long-run," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 503-518, March.
    18. James M. Sallee, 2019. "Pigou Creates Losers: On the Implausibility of Achieving Pareto Improvements from Efficiency-Enhancing Policies," NBER Working Papers 25831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Spencer Bastani & Daniel Waldenström, 2020. "How Should Capital Be Taxed?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 812-846, September.
    20. OBARA, Takuya, 2018. "Optimal human capital policies under the endogenous choice of educational types," CCES Discussion Paper Series 66_v2, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax-benefit microsimulation; redistribution; flat tax reform; Hungary;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.