Structural Change and Poverty Reduction at Sub-State Levels in India

Over the last two decades India has witnessed a significant rise in growth rate compared to historical levels. In this study, we investigate the pattern and nature of growth, and its implication for poverty reduction in India. In particular, we focus on the extent to which, structural change defined as changes in the composition of the economy in terms of key sectors, their employment and productivity, has an impact on poverty reduction. The paper is first of its kind in focusing on these issue at the sub-state level, which is important given the large size of Indian states that mask a great deal of heterogeneity. Moreover, the paper focuses on alternate definitions of structural change, including for the first differentiating between productivity increases in India arising from workers moving into above average productivity level sectors from workers moving to sectors that are experiencing positive productivity growth. The paper finds that while improving sectoral productivity is important for poverty reduction, there is a strong link between shift of workers into sectors witnessing an increase in poverty and poverty reduction. Thus poverty reduction requires generating jobs in dynamic sectors that are witnessing productivity growth as well as imparting adequate skills to the workforce to make them employable in these sectors.