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Tax Smoothing: Tests on Indonesian Data

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  • Kurniawan, Rudi

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature of public debt management by testing for tax smoothing behaviour in Indonesia. Tax smoothing means that the government smooths the tax rate across all future time periods to minimize the distortionary costs of taxation over time for a given path of government spending. In a stochastic economy with an incomplete bond market, tax smoothing implies that the tax rate approximates a random walk and changes in the tax rate are nearly unpredictable. For that purpose, two tests were performed. First, random walk behaviour of the tax rate was examined by undertaking unit root tests. The null hypothesis of unit root cannot be rejected, indicating that the tax rate is nonstationary and, hence, it follows a random walk. Second, the predictability of the tax rate was examined by regressing changes in the tax rate on its own lagged values and also on lagged values of changes in the goverment expenditure ratio, and growth of real output. They are found to be not significant in predicting changes in the tax rate. Taken together, the present evidence seems to be consistent with the tax smoothing, therefore provides support to this theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurniawan, Rudi, 2011. "Tax Smoothing: Tests on Indonesian Data," MPRA Paper 65884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65884
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65884/1/MPRA_paper_65884.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Lin, Kenneth S., 1993. "Deficits, government expenditures, and tax smoothing in the United States: 1929-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 317-339, June.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1981. "On the Predictability of Tax-Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 0636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    4. Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "Intertemporal Tax-Smoothing and the Government Budget Surplus: Canada and the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1033-1045, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Samuel Bonzu, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and Optimal Taxation in Sierra Leone: Testing for Tax Smoothing Hypothesis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(2), pages 1-61, February.
    2. Taner Turan & Mesut Karakas & Halit Yanikkaya, 2014. "Tax Smoothing Hypothesis: A Turkish Case," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 487-501, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax smoothing; Indonesia;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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