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A regression based model of average exit time from poverty with application to Malawi

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  • Mussa, Richard

Abstract

The paper develops a regression based model of exit time from poverty. The model provides an integrated framework for analysing how policy interventions which target the growth rate of consumption, household and community characteristics, the poverty line, and inequality would affect the average exit time from poverty. The method is then illustrated using Malawian data from the Third Integrated Household Survey. The empirical results indicate that reduction in vertical inequalities relative to horizontal inequalities in Malawi would lead to a larger reduction in the length of time poor people stay poor. In both rural and urban areas, increases in the education of females have a larger effect on the exit time, and increases in employment in the tertiary industry reduce the exit time by a larger amount than employment in the primary or the secondary industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mussa, Richard, 2015. "A regression based model of average exit time from poverty with application to Malawi," MPRA Paper 65204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65204
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65204/1/MPRA_paper_65204.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Datt, Gaurav & Jolliffe, Dean, 2005. "Poverty in Egypt: Modeling and Policy Simulations," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 327-346, January.
    2. Mukherjee, Sanjukta & Benson, Todd, 2003. "The Determinants of Poverty in Malawi, 1998," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 339-358, February.
    3. Christophe Muller, 2001. "The Properties of the Watts Poverty Index under Lognormality," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9.
    4. Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth, 2009. "Estimating Households Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks: A Novel Method Applied in Madagascar," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1222-1234, July.
    5. Guillermo Cruces & Quentin Wodon, 2007. "Risk-adjusted poverty in Argentina: measurement and determinants," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(7), pages 1189-1214.
    6. Pauw, Karl & Beck, Ulrik & Mussa, Richard, 2014. "Did rapid smallholder-led agricultural growth fail to reduce rural poverty? Making sense of Malawi's poverty puzzle," WIDER Working Paper Series 123, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    8. World Bank, 2013. "Malawi Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Other Operational Studies 20586, The World Bank.
    9. Morduch, Jonathan, 1998. "Poverty, economic growth, and average exit time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 385-390, June.
    10. Verduzco-Gallo, Íñigo & Ecker, Olivier & Pauw, Karl, 2014. "Changes in food and nutrition security in Malawi: Analysis of recent survey evidence:," MaSSP working papers 6, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. Jonathan Haughton & Shahidur R. Khandker, 2009. "Handbook on Poverty and Inequality," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 11985.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exit time; Poverty; Malawi;

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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