IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/61987.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Evolution of Germany’s Net Foreign Asset Position

Author

Listed:
  • Baldi, Guido
  • Bremer, Björn

Abstract

Available data suggest that, between 2006 and 2012, Germany may have suffered losses to the value of more than 20% of annual economic output on its net foreign assets. Were these presumed losses on German net foreign assets coincidental or can they be attributed to deeper causes? Over time, fluctuating asset valuations are nothing unusual, per se. Losses can quickly turn into profits and vice versa. In addition, the available data should be interpreted with some caution. However, this report also shows that there are lessons to be learned from the loss in value on foreign assets. First, losses have been for the most part in portfolio investments, whereas foreign direct investments by German firms (strategic equity investments) have shown reasonable valuation gains since 2006 by international comparison. At the same time, foreign investors have also seen profit on their direct investments in Germany. With hindsight, it might have been a better strategy for German entrepreneurs and investors to either increase domestic investment or make long-term investments abroad. Further, a comparison with investment behavior in the United States (US) suggests that the profitability of German foreign asset placement has been low. Both countries attract capital from abroad for fixed-interest bonds because both Germany and the US profit from the fact that investors see them as “safe havens” and must pay comparatively low interest rates on bonds. However, while companies and private individuals in the US have simultaneously invested abroad in bonds with high value return, this can generally not be said for German investors in recent years. Some of Germany’s net losses can even be attributed to foreign investors making valuation gains on their investments in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldi, Guido & Bremer, Björn, 2015. "The Evolution of Germany’s Net Foreign Asset Position," MPRA Paper 61987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:61987
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61987/1/MPRA_paper_61987.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Bach & G. Baldi & K. Bernoth & J. Blazejczak & B. Bremer & J. Diekmann & D. Edler & B. Farkas & F. Fichtner & M. Fratzscher & M. Gornig & C. Kemfert & U. Kunert & H. Link & K. Neuhoff & W.-P. Schil, 2013. "Germany Must Invest More in Its Future," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 3(8), pages 3-4.
    2. Guido Baldi & Björn Bremer, 2013. "Verluste auf das deutsche Nettoauslandsvermögen - wie sind sie entstanden?," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(49), pages 32-40.
    3. Stefan Bach & Guido Baldi & Kerstin Bernoth & Björn Bremer & Beatrice Farkas & Ferdinand Fichtner & Marcel Fratzscher & Martin Gornig, 2013. "More Growth through Higher Investment," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 3(8), pages 5-16.
    4. Habib, Maurizio Michael, 2010. "Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 1158, European Central Bank.
    5. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2017. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2017," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 84(40), pages 809-883.
    2. Hünnekes, Franziska & Konradt, Maximilian & Schularick, Moritz & Trebesch, Christoph & Wingenbach, Julian, 2023. "Exportweltmeister: Germany's Foreign Investment Returns in International Comparison," Kiel Working Papers 2133, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), revised 2023.
    3. Guido Baldi & Björn Bremer & Thore Schlaak, 2017. "International Investments and Current Account Imbalances: The Importance of Valuation Changes," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 117, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Nils Redeker & Stefanie Walter, 2020. "We’d rather pay than change the politics of German non-adjustment in the Eurozone crisis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 573-599, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas A. Knetsch & Arne J. Nagengast, 2017. "Penny wise and pound foolish? On the income from Germany’s foreign investments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(4), pages 753-778, November.
    2. Fiedler, Salomon & Görg, Holger & Hornok, Cecília & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Marchal, Léa & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Direktinvestitionen im Ausland - Effekte auf die deutsche Leistungsbilanz und Spillovers in den Empfängerländern," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-61.
    4. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    6. Zorell, Nico, 2017. "Large net foreign liabilities of euro area countries," Occasional Paper Series 198, European Central Bank.
    7. van Hombeeck, Carlos Eduardo, 2020. "An exorbitant privilege in the first age of international financial integration?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. Mileva, Mariya, 2015. "Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 390-408.
    9. Franziska Hunnekes & Maximilian Konradt & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch & Julian Wingenbach, 2023. "Exportweltmeister- Germany's Foreign Investment Returns in International Comparison," IHEID Working Papers 03-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    10. Martin Schmitz, 2014. "Financial remoteness and the net external position," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(1), pages 191-219, February.
    11. Devereux, Michael B. & Saito, Makoto & Yu, Changhua, 2020. "International capital flows, portfolio composition, and the stability of external imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
    13. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Scholarly Articles 34299169, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Schularick, Moritz & Hünnekes, Franziska & Trebesch, Christoph, 2019. "Exportweltmeister: The Low Returns on Germany’s Capital Exports," CEPR Discussion Papers 13863, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma, 2013. "Global and Euro Imbalances: China and Germany," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 2, pages 43-72, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
    16. Pascal Towbin, 2013. "Financial Integration And External Sustainability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 375-395, October.
    17. Joseph P. Joyce, 2018. "External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 305-329, April.
    18. Valeria Pellegrini & Enrico Tosti, 2012. "In search of lost capital: an estimation of undeclared portfolio assets," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 131, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Joseph P. Joyce, 2021. "The sources of international investment income in emerging market economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 606-625, August.
    20. Lin, Justin Yifu & Fardoust, Shahrokh & Rosenblatt, David, 2012. "Reform of the international monetary system : a jagged history and uncertain prospects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6070, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Assets and Liabilities; Valuation Effects; International Capital Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:61987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.