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Non-renewable resources and growth, the case of the oil: a simple endogenous model

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  • Fabbri, Giorgio

Abstract

We present a growth model in which a non-renewable resource enters in the production function. The non-renewable resource is supposed to be sold by an external monopolistic that maximizes his intertemporal discounted cash flow. This approach allows to endogenize the price of the resource. We use the historical data of the oil price and of the oil production to calibrate the model. The forecasts of the model about the evolution of the GDP growth rate, the price and amount of the production of the oil are described. The formulation of the model is quite easy but it hallows to obtain a good fit with the recent data and especially with the behavior of the three main quantities considered (oil price, oil supply and GDP growth rate) in the last years. Indeed the recent data suggest a new scenario and probably a progressive reduction of the world oil supply (and an indefinite growth of the prices). The model suggests that such a behavior is not due to the imminent physical end of the oil but has a clear economic explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabbri, Giorgio, 2007. "Non-renewable resources and growth, the case of the oil: a simple endogenous model," MPRA Paper 5718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5718
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Lawrence Goulder & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Geoffrey Heal & Simon Levin & Karl-Göran Mäler & Stephen Schneider & David Starrett & Brian Walker, 2004. "Are We Consuming Too Much?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 147-172, Summer.
    2. Aage, Hans, 1984. "Economic Arguments on the Sufficiency of Natural Resources," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(1), pages 105-113, March.
    3. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: The Competitive Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 139-152.
    4. Eric Neumayer, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
    5. Mitra, Tapan, 1980. "On Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources: Existence and Characterization Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1431-1450, September.
    6. Brian R. Copeland & M. Scott Taylor, 2004. "Trade, Growth, and the Environment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 7-71, March.
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    8. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    9. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-renewable resources; Oil; Endogenous Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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