Month-of-the-year effects on Romanian capital market before and after the adhesion to European Union
Monthly seasonality in the stock prices returns is among the best known calendar anomalies that affect the capital markets. The knowledge about such calendar patterns could be exploited in building successful investment strategies. However, it was revealed that not all the calendar anomalies were persistent in time. Sometimes, the passage from relative quiet to more turbulent periods caused significant changes in a financial market seasonality. In this paper we investigate the presence of Month-of-the-year effects on the Bucharest Stock Exchange during two periods of time. The first period, from 2000 to 2006, corresponds to the last stages of Romania’s transition to a capitalist system and could be considered as relative quiet for the capital market. The second period, from 2007 to 2012, was marked by sharp changes. The consequences of adhesion to the European Union and the global crisis induced turbulences on the Romanian financial markets. In our analysis we employ daily values of one from the main indexes of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. We use a GARCH model to reveal the monthly seasonality not only on indexes returns but also on the capital market volatility. The results indicate significant changes in the Month-of-the-year effects from the quiet to the turbulent period.
|Date of creation:||16 Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:||04 Apr 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
- Choudhry, Taufiq, 2001. "Month of the Year Effect and January Effect in Pre-WWI Stock Returns: Evidence from a Non-linear GARCH Model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, January.
- Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey & Kevin Littler, 2002. "Why investors should be cautious of the academic approach to testing for stock market anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 681-686.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1998.
"Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
- Eugene F Fama, "undated". "Market Efficiency, Long-Term Returns, and Behavioral Finance," CRSP working papers 448, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Eugene F. Fama, "undated". "Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance," CRSP working papers 340, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
- Branch, Ben, 1977. "A Tax Loss Trading Rule," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 198-207, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Constantinides, George M., 1984.
"Optimal stock trading with personal taxes : Implications for prices and the abnormal January returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 65-89, March.
- George M. Constantinides, 1983. "Optimal Stock Trading with Personal Taxes: Implications for Prices and the Abnormal January Returns," NBER Working Papers 1176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bhardwaj, Ravinder K & Brooks, LeRoy D, 1992. " The January Anomaly: Effects of Low Share Price, Transaction Costs, and Bid-Ask Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 553-575, June.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
- Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2011. "Monthly seasonality in the Bucharest stock exchange," MPRA Paper 41603, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Apr 2011.
- Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
- Gordon Tang, 1998. "Monthly Pattern and Portfolio Effect on Higher Moments of Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 5(3), pages 275-307, November.
- Brian Lucey & Shane Whelan, 2004. "Monthly and semi-annual seasonality in the Irish equity market 1934-2000," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 203-208.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Barry, Christopher B. & Brown, Stephen J., 1984. "Differential information and the small firm effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 283-294, June.
- Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:53069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.