A comparative assessment of aggregate car ownership model estimation methodologies
This work examines the implications of advances in time series analysis on car ownership modeling in Greece. Variables include adults population ratio, GDP per capita, car occupancy, bus kilometers, inflation and unemployment. We developed and compared (a) a classical regression model estimated on raw levels, (b) an econometric model estimated on data stationarized using graphical and unit root tests and (c) an "atheoretical" ARIMA model. Although significant methodological implications were noted, all models forecast 48 to 49 private cars per 100 inhabitants by the year 2010, a development of momentous energy and environmental implications.
|Date of creation:||19 May 2006|
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- Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-63, September.
- Giovanni Baiocchi & Walter Distaso, 2003. "GRETL: Econometric software for the GNU generation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 105-110.
- Dermot Gately, 1990. "The U.S. Demand for Highway Travel and Motor Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-74.
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