Long-run trend, Business Cycle & Short-run shocks in real GDP
Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.
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- Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999.
"A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julio Rotemberg, 1999. "Matlab code for A Method for Decomposing Time Series into Trend and Cycle Components," QM&RBC Codes 75, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Torben Mark Pedersen, 1998. "The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the Slutzky Effect, and the Distortionary Effect of Filters," Discussion Papers 98-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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