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Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation


  • P., Srinivasan
  • M., Kalaivani


This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on the real exports in India using the ARDL bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Using annual time series data, the empirical analyses has been carried out for the period 1970 to 2011. The study results confirm that real exports are cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, real exchange rate, gross domestic product and foreign economic activity. Our findings indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant negative impact on real exports both in the short-run and long-run, implying that higher exchange rate fluctuation tends to reduce real exports in India. Besides, the real exchange rate has negative short-run and positive long-run effects on real exports. The empirical results reveal that GDP has a positive and significant impact on India’s real exports in the long-run, but the impact turns out to be insignificant in the short-run. In addition, the foreign economic activity exerts significant negative and positive impact on real exports in the short-run and long-run, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43828

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adusei Poku, Eugene & Broni-Pinkrah, Samuel & Effah Nyamekye, Gabriel, 2016. "Modelling and assessment of the effect of income on service exports in Ghana," MPRA Paper 72312, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Exchange rate volatility; Real exports; India; ARDL-UECM; Cointegration; CUSUM; CUSUMQ;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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