IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/43656.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Behavior of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market: An Intraday Volatility/Return Analysis Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Çankaya, Serkan
  • Ulusoy, Veysel
  • Eken, Hasan/M.

Abstract

This study investigates intraday effects in the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) during the latest period of financial turmoil which began in August 2007 and extended to February 2010. We tested for the possible existence of intraday anomalies using both return and volatility equations, empirically applying GARCH (p,q) models. The unique data set we utilized was compiled from 15-min intraday values of the ISE-100 Index which are formed by averaging historical ten-second tick data. This study contributes to the current literature in three distinct ways. Firstly, the basic characteristics of the unique data used in this research were investigated in detail. Secondly, four range-based volatility measures, namely Garman Klass (GK), Yang-Zhang (YZ), Rogers-Satchell (RS) and Parkinson (PK), were employed to take more precise measurements of volatility for intraday data analysis in order to identify the changes in general market sentiment using opening, closing, high and low prices. Thirdly, we estimated the relative efficiency of GK, YZ, RS and PK by applying GARCH (p,q) models. The results are quite promising, indicating that strong opening price jumps are present for daily and morning calculations. They illustrate that the YZ estimator has relatively more power in generating tolerable volatility patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Çankaya, Serkan & Ulusoy, Veysel & Eken, Hasan/M., 2011. "The Behavior of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market: An Intraday Volatility/Return Analysis Approach," MPRA Paper 43656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43656
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43656/1/MPRA_paper_43656.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. McInish, Thomas & Wood, Robert A., 1990. "A transactions data analysis of the variability of common stock returns during 1980-1984," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 99-112, March.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Chan, K. C. & Fong, Wai-Ming & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, ReneM., 1996. "Information, trading and stock returns: Lessons from dually-listed securities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1161-1187, August.
    4. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    5. Wiggins, James B, 1991. "Empirical Tests of the Bias and Efficiency of the Extreme-Value Variance Estimator for Common Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(3), pages 417-432, July.
    6. LeBaron, Blake, 1992. "Some Relations between Volatility and Serial Correlations in Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 199-219, April.
    7. Lowengrub, Paul & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Before and after international cross-listing: an intraday examination of volume and volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 139-155, April.
    8. Yadav, Pradeep K. & Pope, Peter F., 1992. "Intraweek and intraday seasonalities in stock market risk premia: Cash and futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 233-270, February.
    9. Kursat Aydoğan & G. Geoffrey Booth, 2003. "Calendar anomalies in the Turkish foreign exchange markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 353-360.
    10. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. "How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    11. Smirlock, Michael & Starks, Laura, 1986. "Day-of-the-week and intraday effects in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 197-210, September.
    12. Beckers, Stan, 1983. "Variances of Security Price Returns Based on High, Low, and Closing Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 97-112, January.
    13. Ozgur (Ozzy) Akay & Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2010. "On The Robustness Of Range‐Based Volatility Estimators," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 179-199, June.
    14. Kalev, Petko S. & Pham, Linh T., 2009. "Intraweek and intraday trade patterns and dynamics," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 547-564, November.
    15. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    16. Lockwood, Larry J & Linn, Scott C, 1990. "An Examination of Stock Market Return Volatility during Overnight and Intraday Periods, 1964-1989," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 591-601, June.
    17. Riza Demirer & M. Baha Karan, 2002. "An Investigation of the Day-of-the-Week Effect on Stock Returns in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(6), pages 47-77, December.
    18. Cyree, Ken B & Winters, Drew B, 2001. "An Intraday Examination of the Federal Funds Market: Implications for the Theories of the Reverse-J Pattern," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 535-556, October.
    19. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    20. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1992. "Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1765-1784, December.
    21. Chang, Rosita P. & Fukuda, Toru & Ghon Rhee, S. & Taakano, Makoto, 1993. "Intraday and interday behavior of the TOPIX," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 67-95, March.
    22. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "A transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-117, May.
    23. Harrison Hong & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Trading and Returns under Periodic Market Closures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 297-354, February.
    24. Bildik, Recep, 2001. "Intra-day seasonalities on stock returns: evidence from the Turkish Stock Market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 387-417, December.
    25. McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 1990. "An analysis of transactions data for the Toronto Stock Exchange : Return patterns and end-of-the-day effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 441-458, August.
    26. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 269-283, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Çankaya, Serkan & Eken, Hasan/M. & Ulusoy, Veysel, 2011. "The Impact of Short Selling on Intraday Volatility: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 43658, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Köksal, Bülent, 2012. "An Analysis of Intraday Patterns and Liquidity on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 35968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Iwatsubo, Kentaro & Watkins, Clinton & Xu, Tao, 2018. "Intraday seasonality in efficiency, liquidity, volatility and volume: Platinum and gold futures in Tokyo and New York," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 59-71.
    3. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Clinton Watkins & Tao Xu, 2017. "Intraday Seasonality in Efficiency, Liquidity, Volatility and Volume: Platinum and Gold Futures in Tokyo and New York," Discussion Papers 1715, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Bildik, Recep, 2001. "Intra-day seasonalities on stock returns: evidence from the Turkish Stock Market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 387-417, December.
    5. Haibin Xie & Shouyang Wang, 2018. "Timing the market: the economic value of price extremes," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
    6. Bogousslavsky, Vincent, 2021. "The cross-section of intraday and overnight returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 172-194.
    7. Chan, Yue-cheong & Chui, Andy C. W. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 2001. "The impact of salient political and economic news on the trading activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 195-217, June.
    8. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Hwang, Bruce B.K. & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using nonlinear regression quantiles and the intra-day range," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 557-574.
    9. Chia-Ching Chang & Sheng-Syan Chen & Robin Chou & Chin-Wen Hsin, 2011. "Intraday return spillovers and its variations across trading sessions," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 355-390, April.
    10. Zdravetz Lazarov, 2005. "Assesing the Economic Significance of the Intra-daily Volatility Seasonalities," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 203, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    11. Semenov, Andrei, 2015. "The small-cap effect in the predictability of individual stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 178-197.
    12. Boyarchenko, Nina & Larsen, Lars & Whelan, Paul, 2020. "The Overnight Drift," CEPR Discussion Papers 14462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. A. Christian Silva & Ju-Yi Yen, 2010. "Stochastic resonance and the trade arrival rate of stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 461-466.
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2015. "Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness: A Network Approach to Measurement and Monitoring," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199338306.
    15. José Valentim Machado Vicente & Gustavo Silva Araujo & Paula Baião Fisher de Castro & Felipe Noronha Tavares, 2014. "Assessing Day-to-Day Volatility: Does the Trading Time Matter?," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 12(1), pages 41-66.
    16. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    17. Yadav, Pradeep K., 1992. "Event studies based on volatility of returns and trading volume: A review," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 157-184.
    18. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Liu, Nathan, 2010. "The economic value of volatility timing using a range-based volatility model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2288-2301, November.
    19. Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
    20. Lakshmi Padmakumari & S. Maheswaran, 2018. "Covariance estimation using random permutations," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-21, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intraday volatility; GARCH; Istanbul Stock Exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43656. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.