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El Intercambio entre Inflacion y Producto: Evidencia Empirica para Venezuela
[The Trade-off between Inflation and Output: Empirical Evidence for Venezuela]

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  • Victor, Olivo

Abstract

Many researchers have explored the implications of Lucas’ misperception model. Arguably, the most important implication of this model is that the slope of the aggregate supply curve depends on the variability of nominal shocks. This paper examines this insight from Lucas’ model using annual data of the Venezuelan economy for the period 1951-2004. The motivation for this research is the perception that since the increase in oil prices in the mid 70s, Venezuelan policymakers have insisted in stimulating the economy applying systematically very expansive fiscal and monetary policies. The results obtained indicate that for the period analyzed, Lucas’s hypothesis explains fairly well why the trade-off between inflation and output has tended to disappear in the Venezuelan economy, as nominal shocks has increased in size and variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor, Olivo, 2005. "El Intercambio entre Inflacion y Producto: Evidencia Empirica para Venezuela [The Trade-off between Inflation and Output: Empirical Evidence for Venezuela]," MPRA Paper 41242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41242
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    2. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1980. "Further International Evidence of Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 409-421, June.
    3. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen, 2004. "Macroeconomic rationality and Lucas' misperceptions model: further evidence from 41 countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 227-241.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output; inflation; trade-off; nominal shocks; monetary policy; fiscal policy; variability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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