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The Direction of Causality between Health Spending and GDP: The Case of Pakistan

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  • Haider, Adnan
  • Butt, M. Sabihuddin

Abstract

Relevant literature suggests that the most important determinant of health care spending is real GDP. Moreover, there is considerable evidence that health care spending rises at a faster rate than real GDP. This paper uses recently developed tests for the existence of a long run relationship to analyze the links between health care spending and GDP. We are, particularly, interested in estimating the elasticity parameter. The aim of the paper is to provide a new method of analysis to those used in recent papers on this subject. Typically in applied analysis, testing for the existence of cointegration and causality can only be carried out once the time series properties of the data have been established. For example, tests for cointegration require the variables to integrated of the same order, typically I(1), prior to estimation. By eliminating the need for unit root pre-testing, the tests applied here considerably simplify the inference procedure. They also reduce the potential for distortions in the inference due to the unknown properties of the testing sequence. Our findings include robust evidence that, for Pakistan, the income elasticity for health care spending is greater than one and that the elasticity value is stable over the estimation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Haider, Adnan & Butt, M. Sabihuddin, 2006. "The Direction of Causality between Health Spending and GDP: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 23379, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23379
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23379/1/MPRA_paper_23379.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    2. Bewley, R. A., 1979. "The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 357-361.
    3. McCoskey, Suzanne K. & Selden, Thomas M., 1998. "Health care expenditures and GDP: panel data unit root test results," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-376, June.
    4. Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J Smith, 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long Run Relationships," ESE Discussion Papers 46, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    6. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    7. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Sogaard, Jes & Andersson, Fredrik & Jonsson, Bengt, 1992. "An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-84, May.
    8. Jennifer Roberts, 1999. "Sensitivity of elasticity estimates for OECD health care spending: analysis of a dynamic heterogeneous data field," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(5), pages 459-472.
    9. Blomqvist, A. G. & Carter, R. A. L., 1997. "Is health care really a luxury?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-229, April.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Habib Nawaz Khan & Muhammad Arshad Khan & Radzuan B. Razli & Afz’a Binti Sahfie & Gulap Shehzada & Katrina Lane Krebs & Nasrin Sarvghad, 2016. "Health Care Expenditure and Economic Growth in SAARC Countries (1995–2012): A Panel Causality Analysis," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 639-661, September.
    2. Fatima Boussalem & Zina Boussalem & Abdelaziz Taiba, 2014. "The Relationship between public spending on health and economic growth in Algeria: Testing for Cointegration and Causality," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0101004, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Spending; GDP; Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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