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Modelling Stock Returns Volatility In Nigeria Using GARCH Models

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  • Emenike, Kalu O.

Abstract

There is quite an extensive literature documenting the behaviour of stock returns volatility in both developed and emerging stock markets, but such studies are scanty for the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Modelling volatility is an important element in pricing equity, risk management and portfolio management. For these reasons, this paper investigates the behaviour of stock return volatility of the Nigerian Stock Exchange returns using GARCH (1,1) and the GJR-GARCH(1,1) models assuming the Generalized Error Distribution (GED). Monthly All Share Indices of the NSE from January 1999, to December 2008, provided the empirical sample for investigating volatility persistence and asymmetric properties of the series. The results of GARCH (1,1) model indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the NSE return series. Also, the results of the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model show the existence of leverage effects in the series. Finally, the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) shape test reveals leptokurtic returns distribution. Overall results from this study provide evidence to show volatility persistence, fat-tail distribution, and leverage effects for the Nigeria stock returns data.

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  • Emenike, Kalu O., 2010. "Modelling Stock Returns Volatility In Nigeria Using GARCH Models," MPRA Paper 22723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22723
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    Cited by:

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    2. Aastha KHERA & Dr. Miklesh Prasad YADAV, 2020. "Predicting the volatility in stock return of emerging economy: An empirical approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 233-244, Winter.
    3. Nageri Kamaldeen Ibraheem, 2019. "Evaluating Good and Bad News During Pre and Post Financial Meltdown: Nigerian Stock Market Evidence," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(3), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Aluko Olufemi Adewale & Adeyeye Patrick Olufemi & Migiro Stephen Oseko, 2017. "Modelling Volatility Persistence and Asymmetry with Structural Break: Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(6), pages 153-160.
    5. Kumar Arya & Sahoo Jyotirmayee & Sahoo Jyotsnarani & Nanda Subhashree & Debyani Devi, 2024. "Exploring Asymmetric GARCH Models for Predicting Indian Base Metal Price Volatility," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 105-123.
    6. Emenike Kalu O., 2017. "Weak-form Efficiency After Global Financial Crisis: Emerging Stock Market Evidence," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(1), pages 90-113, April.
    7. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Adesiyan, Femi, 2020. "The Persistence of Stock Market Returns during the Presidential elections in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2014. "The persistence and asymmetric volatility in the Nigerian stock bull and bear markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 463-469.
    9. Lamine Diane & Pradeep Brijlal, 2024. "Forecasting Stock Market Realized Volatility using Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network in South Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 5-14, March.
    10. Charan Raj Chimrani & Farhan Ahmed & Vinesh Kumar Panjwani, 2018. "Modeling Sectoral Stock Indexes Volatility: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 319-324.

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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