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Economic cycles: historical evidence, classification and explication


  • Bormotov, Michael


Severe economic fluctuations which had recently hit the entire world economy after relatively prosperous decades despite numerous institutional efforts to control them have recalled an interest to the theory of economic cycles. Historical data on main economic indexes and academic evidence show that recurrent fluctuations in the pace of economic growth are consistent over time. Technological revolutions and worldwide implementation of basic inventions are necessarily accompanied by the processes of creative destruction or “sanitation” of the economy, which cause long term economic cycles which appear to be predictable but practically unavoidable. This paper explores the theoretical background and formulates the basics of the mechanism of economic cycles driven endogenously by modern knowledge based economy. It analyzes definitions of economic cycles, employs the concept of hierarchical economic cycles, studies the links between inventions, innovations and economic cycles, provides a concept of “economic organism” versus “economic mechanism”, gives a definition of “good cycles” versus “bad cycles” and proposes taxonomy of business cycles according to four attributes. This working paper is the first in a range of several papers summarizing the intermediate results of research undertaken by the author in order to reconsider and provide explanations on how modern economy creates cyclical movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Bormotov, Michael, 2009. "Economic cycles: historical evidence, classification and explication," MPRA Paper 19616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19616

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    3. Louca, Francisco, 2001. "Intriguing Pendula: Founding Metaphors in the Analysis of Economic Fluctuations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 25-55, January.
    4. Richard N. Langlois, 2002. "Schumpeter and the Obsolescence of the Entrepreneur," Working papers 2002-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Daniel Wilson, 2003. "Embodying Embodiment in a Structural, Macroeconomic Input-Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 371-398.
    6. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The State of Macro," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 209-228, May.
    7. Paul Segerstrom & Elias Dinopoulos, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    2. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    economic cycles; creative distraction; basic technology; innovations; endogenous economic growth.;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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