Economic cycles: historical evidence, classification and explication
Severe economic fluctuations which had recently hit the entire world economy after relatively prosperous decades despite numerous institutional efforts to control them have recalled an interest to the theory of economic cycles. Historical data on main economic indexes and academic evidence show that recurrent fluctuations in the pace of economic growth are consistent over time. Technological revolutions and worldwide implementation of basic inventions are necessarily accompanied by the processes of creative destruction or “sanitation” of the economy, which cause long term economic cycles which appear to be predictable but practically unavoidable. This paper explores the theoretical background and formulates the basics of the mechanism of economic cycles driven endogenously by modern knowledge based economy. It analyzes definitions of economic cycles, employs the concept of hierarchical economic cycles, studies the links between inventions, innovations and economic cycles, provides a concept of “economic organism” versus “economic mechanism”, gives a definition of “good cycles” versus “bad cycles” and proposes taxonomy of business cycles according to four attributes. This working paper is the first in a range of several papers summarizing the intermediate results of research undertaken by the author in order to reconsider and provide explanations on how modern economy creates cyclical movements.
|Date of creation:||27 Dec 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier J. Blanchard, 2008.
"The State of Macro,"
NBER Working Papers
14259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008.
"Schumpeter Meeting Keynes: A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles,"
50/2008, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
- Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Schumpeter Meeting Keynes: A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2008/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
DELTA Working Papers
90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dinopoulos, Elias & Segerstrom, Paul, 1996.
"A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages,"
Working Paper Series
471, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Paul Segerstrom & Elias Dinopoulos, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June.
- Daniel J. Wilson, 2001.
"Embodying embodiment in a structural, macroeconomic input-output model,"
Working Paper Series
2001-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Daniel Wilson, 2003. "Embodying Embodiment in a Structural, Macroeconomic Input-Output Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 371-398.
- Louca, Francisco, 2001. "Intriguing Pendula: Founding Metaphors in the Analysis of Economic Fluctuations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 25-55, January.
- Richard N. Langlois, 2002. "Schumpeter and the Obsolescence of the Entrepreneur," Working papers 2002-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19616. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.