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The new wave of polish migration after EU enlargement - current state, determinants and outlook

Author

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  • Ciżkowicz, Piotr
  • Hołda, Marcin
  • Sowa, Urszula

Abstract

Following Poland’s accession to the EU there has been a major change in outward migration patterns from Poland. In the last three years Poland has witnessed an increased outflow of workers, especially to Great Britain and Ireland, two countries that opened up their labour markets as early as in May 2004. By analyzing different sources of data we try to obtain a fairly consistent view of the scale of migration from Poland to these two countries and of the profile of Polish migrants with respect to such characteristics as age, education, jobs held in the country of immigration, earnings, intended length of stay and reasons for migration. In light of the theories of migration, empirical evidence as well as results of recent surveys of Poles working in Britain and Ireland, the wage-differential between Poland and the two destination countries of migration appears to be a valid explanation for the recent post-accession wave of migration. Given this result we run a simulation of development of wages in Poland, the UK and Ireland to find out if the ‘wage-differential’ motive for migration is likely to be influential in the coming years. We find that this motive is unlikely to lose significance, even despite the rapid growth of Polish wages in the last few months.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Hołda, Marcin & Sowa, Urszula, 2007. "The new wave of polish migration after EU enlargement - current state, determinants and outlook," MPRA Paper 18596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18596
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie, 2006. "Cross-border labour mobility within an enlarged EU," Occasional Paper Series 52, European Central Bank.
    2. David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    3. David Blanchflower & Jumana Saleheen & Chris Shadforth, 2007. "The impact of the recent migration from Eastern Europe on the UK economy," Discussion Papers 17, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    4. Frigyes Ferdinand Heinz & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2006. "Cross-border labour mobility within an enlarged EU," Occasional Paper Series 52, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihaela Simionescu & Yuriy Bilan & Grzegorz Mentel, 2017. "Economic Effects of Migration from Poland to the UK," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 757-757, August.
    2. Ana Correa & Parviz Dabir-Alai, 2011. "How does development affect international economic emigration? A case study of Polish emigration to the UK," International Journal of Education Economics and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 31-60.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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