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Is after-hours trading informative?


  • Ulibarri, Carlos A.


This article investigates price and trading volume relations for near term crude oil contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The study investigates the informativeness of after-hours trading under the prior assumption that daytime and after-hours trading sessions are completely segmented. The research methodology uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) structural model to identify the lead/lag structure between the leading overnight session and the lagging daytime session. This framework permits us to impose testable restrictions in considering the view that after-hours price changes and trading volumes provide contemporaneous information in the daytime price discovery process. Furthermore, the reduced-form VAR allows testing whether innovations (surprises) in daytime prices and trading activity influence overnight price/volume behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulibarri, Carlos A., 1998. "Is after-hours trading informative?," MPRA Paper 14818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14818

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. John W. Keating, 1992. "Structural approaches to vector autoregressions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 37-57.
    8. Zellner, Arnold, 1979. "Causality and econometrics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 9-54, January.
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    10. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
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    12. Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
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    14. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 269-283, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 2004. "Introducing contemporaneous open-outcry and e-trading at the Chicago Board of Trade," MPRA Paper 14821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lin, Sharon Xiaowen & Tamvakis, Michael N., 2001. "Spillover effects in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 43-56, January.
    3. Ulibarri, Carlos A. & Schatzberg, John, 2003. "Liquidity costs: Screen-based trading versus open outcry," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 381-396.
    4. Conghui Hu & Wei Xiong, 2013. "Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?," NBER Working Papers 19706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item


    futures markets; after hour trading; structural var model;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing


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