Résilience géopolitique des nations : Un modèle systémique de puissance, souveraineté et fragilité stratégique[Geopolitical resilience of nations: a systemic model of power, sovereignty and strategic fragility]

This paper proposes a systemic analytical framework for studying the geopolitical resilience of nations in an international environment characterized by geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and disruptions in global supply chains. We introduce a composite indicator of national resilience based on the interaction between three structural dimensions: structural power, strategic sovereignty, and geopolitical fragility. The proposed model defines the National Resilience Index (IRN) as the product of structural power, an index of global strategic sovereignty, and a corrective factor capturing geopolitical fragilities. The framework allows the identification of critical resilience thresholds separating stable geopolitical configurations from zones of systemic vulnerability. We derive the analytical properties of the model, including the resilience gradient and the conditions under which a nation remains above the critical stability frontier. The paper also proposes an early-warning indicator of geopolitical crises as well as a dynamic extension allowing the evolution of national resilience to be analyzed over time. Overall, the model contributes to the emerging literature on geoeconomics and systemic resilience by proposing a unified analytical framework linking national power, strategic sovereignty, and structural vulnerabilities.