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Identifying the Median Grade-Tonnage Curve from the Global Database of VMS Copper Mining Projects

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  • Bell, Peter

Abstract

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the global database of Volcanogenic Massive Sulphide (VMS) mineral deposits. The paper shows the joint and partial probability distributions for copper equivalent grade and total tonnage based on current metals prices for copper, zinc, lead, and gold. The article develops a new method using the joint distribution to identify the set of quantile values for grade and tonnage that have approximately 50% probability; this set of quantile values represents the median grade-tonnage curve for VMS deposits around the world. The article also shows how to analyze individual projects in comparison with the global database. For example, the size of the Shamlugskoe mine in Armenia is ranked according to the global database. For another example, a model of the exploration project called Mount Sicker is presented and compared to nearby projects that are in the global database.

Suggested Citation

  • Bell, Peter, 2026. "Identifying the Median Grade-Tonnage Curve from the Global Database of VMS Copper Mining Projects," MPRA Paper 127617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:127617
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    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • A19 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Other
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • B59 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Other
    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C69 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Other
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D2 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
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    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
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    • L2 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
    • L5 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy
    • L7 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
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