Determinantes del cierre de proyectos de inversión pública en Perú: Un enfoque jerárquico ponderado[Determinants of the closure of public investment projects in Peru: A weighted hierarchical approach]

This study analyzes the determinants of public investment project completion in Peru, using a weighted hierarchical logit model to control for heterogeneity at the macro-regional and institutional function levels. The dependent variable is project completion, while the explanatory variables include selection in the Transitory Complementary Provision (DCT), financial progress, project typology, level of government, use of Form 12B, and the Multiannual Investment Programming (PMI). The results show that financial progress and the use of Form 12B significantly increase the probability of project completion, with marginal effects of 0.32 and 0.18, respectively. In contrast, selection under the DCT and the existence of the PMI are associated with lower probabilities of completion, indicating that planning or resource allocation alone does not guarantee effective execution. Additionally, projects under the National and Regional governments have a higher likelihood of completion compared to local government projects, while smaller projects, such as PIP Minor and Investment Projects, face greater challenges in successfully reaching completion. IOARR projects, on the other hand, show completion outcomes comparable to PIP Major projects, without statistically significant differences. These findings highlight the importance of financial execution, management tools, and institutional capacity for the success of public investment projects, providing relevant empirical evidence for improving project management and investment prioritization within the framework of Peru’s public investment system.