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Disinformation and “Bad” Financial Speculations: A Mechanism behind Financial Crises

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  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

Some financial speculations are similar to gambling or Ponzi schemes because they are undertaken to extract other people’s economic resources. In this sense, there will be “good” and “bad” financial speculations. In this paper, I construct static and dynamic models of bad speculations and show that an important determinant of the amount of bad speculation is the economic cost (inefficiency) generated, particularly by disinformation that is disseminated for the speculation. The economic cost and amount of bad speculation are influenced by the ability and effort of regulatory authorities, and if that ability largely deteriorates, the amount of bad speculation will greatly increase and a financial crisis will occur. Hence, people must look for signs of deterioration of the ability of the regulatory authority to prevent financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Harashima, Taiji, 2025. "Disinformation and “Bad” Financial Speculations: A Mechanism behind Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 124877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124877
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harashima, Taiji, 2024. "Disinformation and Mutual Trust: An Economic Model," MPRA Paper 121865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Macroeconomics 0409018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2005.
    3. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    4. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harashima, Taiji, 2010. "Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population," MPRA Paper 22521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Tyler Muir, 2025. "How Credit Cycles across a Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 1339-1378, June.
    7. Harashima, Taiji, 2021. "Economic Inequality and Heterogeneous Success Rates of Investment," MPRA Paper 110688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    9. Harashima, Taiji, 2025. "Disinformation, Benefit of Group Membership, and Conscience: An Economic Model," MPRA Paper 124120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Matthew Baron & Wei Xiong, 2017. "Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 713-764.
    11. Harashima, Taiji, 2009. "A Theory of Total Factor Productivity and the Convergence Hypothesis: Workers’ Innovations as an Essential Element," MPRA Paper 15508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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