IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11904.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit market and prediction of its future development

Author

Listed:
  • Vodová, Pavla

Abstract

This study focuses on the credit market in the Czech Republic. The aim of this paper is to carry out an econometric investigation of supply and demand on the credit market and to predict the development in the future. The first part of the paper briefly characterizes the credit market in the Czech Republic. As a result of banking crisis, the growth rate of credits provided to private sector has decreased sharply and is recovering only gradually. It has caused many problems especially to nonfinancial companies. Next chapter discuss the essence of disequilibrium model. Credit markets are very often characterized by the fact that the interest rate does not clean the market and the discrepancy between credit demand and credit supply occurs. The fact that it is impossible to measure credit demand and credit supply quantities can be solved by the use of disequilibrium model. In the framework of disequilibrium model, the credit demand and credit supply functions are estimated under the restriction that the minimum of the two determines credit. The last chapter describes the data used and the empirical findings. The analysis is based on quarterly data covered the period from the first quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2006. Based on parameter estimates, the volume of credit demand and credit supply is calculated and compared with the actual volume of credit. The future development of the Czech credit market is predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Vodová, Pavla, 2008. "Credit market and prediction of its future development," MPRA Paper 11904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11904
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11904/1/MPRA_paper_11904.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2004. "The credit crunch in East Asia: what can bank excess liquid assets tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, February.
    2. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    3. Luis Catão, 1997. "Bank Credit in Argentina in the Aftermath of the Mexican Crisis; Supply or Demand Constrained?," IMF Working Papers 97/32, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Swart R. Ghosh, 1999. "East Asia in the Aftermath; Was there a Crunch?," IMF Working Papers 99/38, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit market; lending activity; disequilibrium model; credit demand and supply;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11904. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.