IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/118267.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Madagascar economic growth using the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach

Author

Listed:
  • Andrianady, Josué R.
  • Rajaonarison, Njakanasandratra R.
  • Razanajatovo, Yves H.

Abstract

In this document, we introduce a forecasting model for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to estimate the economic growth of Madagascar in 2022. Normally, important macroeconomic variables are reported at different frequencies. For instance, GDP and foreign trade figures are typically provided on a quarterly and monthly basis respectively. However, traditional econometric models necessitate data to be harmonized to a common frequency by aggregating at the highest available frequency, which is known as temporal aggregation. Nonetheless, this approach has a disadvantage of losing information. Consequently, we propose the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) method as an alternative.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrianady, Josué R. & Rajaonarison, Njakanasandratra R. & Razanajatovo, Yves H., 2023. "Estimating Madagascar economic growth using the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) approach," MPRA Paper 118267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118267/1/MIDAS_2022.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    2. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    3. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "Is there a Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Latvia? Evidence from Bank Level Data," Working Papers 2008/01, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
    5. Albert K. Tsui & Cheng Yang Xu & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2018. "Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed data sampling frequencies: Evidence from a small open economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 666-675, September.
    6. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mahmut Gunay, 2020. "Nowcasting Turkish GDP with MIDAS: Role of Functional Form of the Lag Polynomial," Working Papers 2002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
    3. Aristea Gkagka & Grigoris Zarotiadis, 2011. "Growth and EU Trade Relations: A Case Study," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11.
    4. Syed Tehseen Jawaid, 2014. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 49(2), pages 193-212, May.
    5. Rong Fu & Luze Xie & Tao Liu & Juan Huang & Binbin Zheng, 2022. "Chinese Economic Growth Projections Based on Mixed Data of Carbon Emissions under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    8. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
    9. Musleh-Ud Din & Ejaz Ghani & Omer Siddique, 2003. "Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 795-807.
    10. Miguel León-Ledesma, 2000. "R&D Spillovers and Export Performance: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Studies in Economics 0014, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    11. Maghyereh Aktham & Sweidan Osama & Awartani Basel, 2020. "Asymmetric Responses of Economic Growth to Daily Oil Price Changes: New Global Evidence from Mixed-data Sampling Approach," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 71(2), pages 81-99, August.
    12. Bonino-Gayoso, Nicolás & García-Hiernaux, Alfredo, 2019. "TF-MIDAS: a new mixed-frequency model to forecast macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 93366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "How do daily changes in oil prices affect US monthly industrial output?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 83-90.
    14. Arshia Amiri & Ulf-G Gerdtham, 2012. "Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 43-59, May.
    15. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
    16. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi, 2018. "The Causal Effects of Trade and Technology Transfer on Human Capital and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Basu, Anwesha & Marjit, Sugata & Veeramani, C., 2024. "Growth gains from offshore outsourcing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 90-112.
    18. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Musleh-Ud Din, 2004. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 105-124.
    20. Óscar Afonso, 2001. "The Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 106, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118267. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.