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Stress-testing a shock to remittances in a post-Covid world – what impact on liquidity?

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  • Monahov, Alexandru

Abstract

Remittances have historically been a stable source of funding which has played a key role in the development efforts of many nations worldwide. As a consequence of the Covid crisis and the lockdown measures imposed to counteract the spread of the disease, the World Bank estimated a drop of 20% in remittances by the end of 2020. To study the effect that such a conjuncture would have on the financial stability of developing economies, this paper develops a remittance stress test that investigates the impact of the projected shock on banking sector liquidity at a country level. The study encompasses 112 countries and finds that small, emerging economies with underdeveloped financial sectors suffer the most, with six of the ten most affected nations experiencing a drop in their liquid asset ratios that would place their banking sector at significant liquidity risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Monahov, Alexandru, 2020. "Stress-testing a shock to remittances in a post-Covid world – what impact on liquidity?," MPRA Paper 101442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2020. "COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens," World Bank Publications - Reports 33634, The World Bank Group.
    2. Barajas, Adolfo & Chami, Ralph & Ebeke, Christian & Oeking, Anne, 2018. "What's different about monetary policy transmission in remittance-dependent countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 272-288.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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