IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in Rice Importation Simulation Model: a Stochastic Programming Approach


  • de Guzman, Rosalina G.
  • Mina, Christian D.
  • Crean, Jason
  • Parton, Kevin
  • Reyes, Celia M.


In the Philippines, importation has remained as one of the most feasible options for the government to meet the growing demand for rice. It is thus imperative for the government to develop a strategy that would ensure adequate supply and minimum importation costs. One of the critical factors in import decisionmaking is rice production. The Inter-Agency Committee on Rice and Corn (IACRC), where the National Food Authority (NFA) and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) are members, decides on importation when there is an impending production shortfall in the coming season. However, because Philippine agriculture is vulnerable to extreme climate events and climate change is believed to further intensify the effects of seasonal climate variability, rice production forecast is becoming more uncertain. Inaccurate production forecasts could lead to incorrect volume and ill-timing of rice imports, which in turn could result in either a waste of resources for the government or a burden to consumers. Contraction of rice imports in the early 1990s, ill-timing of imports in 1995, and overimportation in 1998 illustrate how inaccurate forecasts of volume and timing of rice importation, especially during El Niño and La Niña years, could result in substantial economic costs such as higher rice prices due to rice shortages, higher storage costs, among others. This paper evaluates the significance of SCF information, among other things, in rice policy decisions of the government, particularly on importation. It presents an alternative method of forecasting the level of rice production through regional rice production models. The rice production models systematically incorporate SCF and could be used in support of the current practice of forecasting rice production based on planting intentions. The paper also demonstrates how SCF, together with these production estimates, could be incorporated in the rice import decisions of the government through the Rice Importation Simulation (RIS) model, which was developed using a Discrete Stochastic Programming (DSP) modelling approach. The RIS model, which recommends a set of optimal rice import strategies, could serve as guide for the government in its rice import decisions in the face of seasonal climate variability and could be used in estimating the potential value of SCF.

Suggested Citation

  • de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Crean, Jason & Parton, Kevin & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Incorporating Regional Rice Production Models in Rice Importation Simulation Model: a Stochastic Programming Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2009-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2009-28

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Domingo, Sonny N. & Gonzales, Kathrina G. & Mina, Christian D. & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Policy Options for Rice and Corn Farmers in the Face of Seasonal Climate Variability," Discussion Papers DP 2009-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Intal, Ponciano Jr. S. & Garcia, Marissa C., 2005. "Rice and Philippine Politics," Discussion Papers DP 2005-13, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Abedullah & Sushil Pandey, 2007. "The Value of Rainfall Forecasts in the Rainfed Rice Areas of the Philippines," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 69-81, Jul-Dec.
    4. Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    5. Mina, Christian D. & Reyes, Celia M., 2009. "Profitable Use of SCF in a Policy Context: the Case of Rice Stockholding in the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2009-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. David, Cristina C. & Inocencio, Arlene B., 1995. "Comparative and Competitive Advantage of Philippine Rice Production: 1966-1990," Discussion Papers DP 1995-03, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    7. repec:lje:journl:v:2:y:2007:i:2:p:69-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2009-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Aniceto Orbeta). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.