Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections
This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) for the next two decades against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modeling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next two decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.
|Date of creation:||2011|
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- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2009.
"The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-Out Fear Warranted?,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, 02.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2007. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding-out Fear Warranted?," Departmental Working Papers 2007-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-27, October.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2003. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Departmental Working Papers 2003-21, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms and the Structure of Protection in Vietnam," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 161-187, 02.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Trade Policy Reforms and the Structure of Protection in Vietnam," Departmental Working Papers 2005-06, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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