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Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections

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  • Prema-Chandra Athukorala

Abstract

This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) for the next two decades against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modeling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next two decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections," Departmental Working Papers 2011-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2011-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2005. "Product Fragmentation and Trade Patterns in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 4(3), pages 1-27, Fall.
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    9. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2006. "Trade Policy Reforms and the Structure of Protection in Vietnam," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 161-187, February.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Madhurima Bhattacharyay, 2016. "Trends and Patterns of Growth, Development, Achievements of China and India: A Comparative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5788, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian trade; trade patterns; global production sharing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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