IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osk/wpaper/2408.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implied Equity Duration: Lessons from the Japanese Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Yuichi Fukuta

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Akiko Yamane

    (Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Hiroshima University)

Abstract

We present novel insights into the Japanese equity return term structure by examining the re- versals of risk-adjusted returns on duration-sorted portfolios, as were particularly observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and are common during crises. Our analysis, conducted over the Japanese stock market from 1990 to 2022, reveals that market uncertainty significantly explains the returns of the long-short duration portfolio. Additionally, we find that the countercyclicality of the equity term structure can be attributed to di erences in the response of returns to considerably large neg- ative shocks. This study contributes to the understanding of the relationship between the timing of cash ows and stock returns and o ers valuable implications for studies on the cross-section of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuichi Fukuta & Akiko Yamane, 2024. "Implied Equity Duration: Lessons from the Japanese Financial Crises," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 24-08, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:2408
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/econ_society/dp/2408.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Eben Lazarus, 2023. "Duration‐Driven Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1393-1447, June.
    2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    3. Niels Joachim Gormsen, 2021. "Time Variation of the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1959-1999, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.
    2. Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
    3. Lorenzo Bretscher & Alex Hsu & Andrea Tamoni, 2023. "The Real Response to Uncertainty Shocks: The Risk Premium Channel," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 119-140, January.
    4. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
    5. Robert A. Connolly & Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2022. "Stock returns and inflation shocks in weaker economic times," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 827-867, September.
    6. Jankauskas, Tomas, 2023. "Essays in empirical finance," Other publications TiSEM 4c319f87-ba97-44be-897e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly & Serhiy Kozak, 2024. "Equity Term Structures without Dividend Strips Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 4143-4196, December.
    8. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    9. Li, Kai & Xu, Chenjie, 2024. "Intermediary-based equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Loudis, Johnathan, 2020. "The conditional expected market return," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 752-786.
    11. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Demir, Ender & Long, Huaigang, 2022. "When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    13. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2012. "Smooth transition patterns in the realized stock–bond correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 454-464.
    14. Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2016. "Risks for the long run: Estimation with time aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-69.
    15. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.
    16. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    18. Scalco, Paulo R. & Braga, Marcelo J., 2015. "Identification of Market Power in Bilateral Oligopoly: The Brazilian Wholesale Market of UHT Milk," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212278, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Timo Korkeamaki & Danielle Xu, 2015. "Institutional Investors and Foreign Exchange Risk," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-33, September.
    20. Marcelo Fernandes & Breno Neri, 2010. "Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 276-306.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    equity duration; cross-section of stock returns; market uncertainty; financial crisis; pan- demic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:2408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The Economic Society of Osaka University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feosujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.