IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osk/wpaper/1307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Sustainability, Macroeconomic Stability, and Welfare under Fiscal Discipline in a Small Open Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Keiichi Morimoto

    (Department of Economics, Meisei University)

  • Takeo Hori

    (College of Economics, Aoyama Gakuin University)

  • Noritaka Maebayashi

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Koichi Futagami

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

Abstract

We construct a small open economy model of endogenous growth with public capital accumulation and examine how a debt policy rule under which the government gradually reduces its debt-GDP ratio to a target level affects macroeconomic stability, fiscal sustainability, and welfare. We obtain the following implications for fiscal policy design in small countries. First, to ensure fiscal sustainability, the government should adjust public spending rather than the income tax rate to finance public debt. In addition, it has to set the target level of the debt-GDP ratio sufficiently low to avoid expectations-driven economic instabilities. Under sustainability and stability, a tighter (looser) debt rule brings welfare gains when the world interest rate is relatively high (low).

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichi Morimoto & Takeo Hori & Noritaka Maebayashi & Koichi Futagami, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Macroeconomic Stability, and Welfare under Fiscal Discipline in a Small Open Economy," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-07, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wirl, Franz, 2002. "Stability and limit cycles in competitive equilibria subject to adjustment costs and dynamic spillovers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 375-398, March.
    2. Fisher, Walter H & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1998. "Public Investment, Congestion, and Private Capital Accumulation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 399-413, March.
    3. Maebayashi, Noritaka & Hori, Takeo & Futagami, Koichi, 2017. "Dynamic Analysis Of Reductions In Public Debt In An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1454-1483, September.
    4. Guo, Jang-Ting & Harrison, Sharon G., 2004. "Balanced-budget rules and macroeconomic (in)stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 357-363, December.
    5. Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 1996. "Multiple steady states, indeterminacy, and cycles in a basic model of endogenous growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 79-99, February.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    7. Ghosh, Sugata & Mourmouras, Iannis A., 2004. "Endogenous growth, welfare and budgetary regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 623-635, December.
    8. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1997. "Fiscal Policy In A Growing Economy With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 615-639, September.
    9. Meng, Qinglai & Velasco, Andres, 2004. "Market imperfections and the instability of open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 503-519, December.
    10. Alfred Greiner, 2007. "An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital And Sustainable Government Debt," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 345-361, September.
    11. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "The Hopf Bifurcation and Existence and Stability of Closed Orbits in Multisector Models of Optimal Economic Growth," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 51-73, Springer.
    12. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-625, December.
    13. Benhabib, Jess & Rustichini, Aldo, 1990. "Equilibrium cycling with small discounting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 423-432, December.
    14. Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
    15. Jang‐Ting Guo & Sharon G. Harrison, 2008. "Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced‐Budget Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(3), pages 383-397, June.
    16. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    17. Hu, Yunfang & Mino, Kazuo, 2013. "Trade structure and belief-driven fluctuations in a global economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 414-424.
    18. Bruce, Neil & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1999. "Budget Balance, Welfare, and the Growth Rate: "Dynamic Scoring" of the Long-Run Government Budget," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 162-186, May.
    19. Dockner, Engelbert J & Feichtinger, Gustav, 1993. "Cyclical Consumption Patterns and Rational Addiction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 256-263, March.
    20. Meng, Qinglai, 2003. "Multiple transitional growth paths in endogenously growing open economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 365-376, February.
    21. Greiner, Alfred & Hanusch, Horst, 1994. "Schumpeter's Circular Flow, Learning by Doing and Cyclical Growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 261-271, September.
    22. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
    23. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.
    24. Futagami, Koichi & Iwaisako, Tatsuro & Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2008. "Debt Policy Rule, Productive Government Spending, And Multiple Growth Paths," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 445-462, September.
    25. Qinglai Meng & Andrés Velasco, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 22(3), pages 661-669, October.
    26. Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2000. "Endogenous Growth, Government Debt and Budgetary Regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 363-384, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kunihiko Konishi, 2013. "Public Research Spending in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-26, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keiichi Morimoto & Takeo Hori & Noritaka Maebayashi & Koichi Futagami, 2017. "Debt Policy Rules in an Open Economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(1), pages 158-177, February.
    2. Maebayashi, Noritaka & Hori, Takeo & Futagami, Koichi, 2017. "Dynamic Analysis Of Reductions In Public Debt In An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1454-1483, September.
    3. Kunihiko Konishi, 2013. "Public Research Spending in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-26, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Chen, Shu-Hua & Guo, Jang-Ting, 2014. "Progressive taxation and macroeconomic (in)stability with utility-generating government spending," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-183.
    5. Futagami, Koichi & Konishi, Kunihiko, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of budget policy rules in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-88.
    6. Kazutoshi Miyazawa & Hikaru Ogawa & Toshiki Tamai, 2018. "Tax Competition and Fiscal Sustainability," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1103, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Fabienne Lara Dascher, 2020. "Sustainable Debt Policy Rules and Growth in a Small Open Economy Model: Is a Balanced Government Budget Worthwhile?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 373-397, September.
    8. Miyazawa, Kazutoshi & Ogawa, Hikaru & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Capital market integration and fiscal sustainability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Tamai, Toshiki, 2014. "Public capital, deficit financing, and economic growth in a stochastic economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 14-26.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Devrim Yilmaz, 2012. "Simple Dynamics of Public Debt with Productive Public Goods," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 165, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Akira Kamiguchi & Toshiki Tamai, 2017. "Public Investment and Golden Rule of Public Finance in an Overlapping Generations Model," KIER Working Papers 971, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    12. Maebayashi, Noritaka, 2021. "The pace of fiscal consolidations, fiscal sustainability, and welfare: An overlapping generations approach," MPRA Paper 112593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Feb 2022.
    13. Maebayashi, Noritaka, 2023. "The pace of fiscal consolidations, fiscal sustainability, and welfare: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Alessandro Piergallini, 2021. "Is fiscal austerity really self‐defeating?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 23(6), pages 1228-1260, December.
    15. Tamai, Toshiki, 2016. "Public investment, the rate of return, and optimal fiscal policy in a stochastically growing economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-17.
    16. Eleftherios Goulas & Athina Zervoyianni, 2012. "Growth, Deficits and Uncertainty in a Panel of 28 Countries," Working Paper series 52_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    17. Ueshina, Mitsuru, 2018. "The effect of public debt on growth and welfare under the golden rule of public finance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-11.
    18. Kamiguchi, Akira & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 110-122.
    19. Ingrid Ott & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2006. "Excludable and Non‐excludable Public Inputs: Consequences for Economic Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 725-748, November.
    20. Yasuoka, Masaya & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2015. "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," CIS Discussion paper series 649, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Public debt; Welfare; Fiscal sustainability; Equiribrium indeterminacy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:1307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The Economic Society of Osaka University (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feosujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.