Disability in the kinship network: population-level exposure to kin with disability across ages in Europe

Disability is usually framed as an individual condition, yet its associated consequences may extend through kinship networks. Despite this, the population reach of disability through kin remains unknown. We use demographic kinship matrix models combining fertility and mortality schedules with disability prevalence, to estimate population exposure to disability through grandparents, parents, siblings, children, and grandchildren across ages in Europe in 2021. We quantify exposure using three complementary measures: the probability of having at least one kin with disability, the population-level number of individuals exposed, and the proportion of kin with disability. Our results show that exposure is both widespread and substantial: across all ages and kin types, 70% of women in Europe, corresponding to about 160 million women, have at least one close kin with disability. In childhood and early adulthood, more than half to three-quarters of European women have at least one grandparent with disability, with the age-specific number of exposed women peaking at about 1.5 million; in midlife, about one-third to nearly one-half have at least one parent with disability, with the population-level exposure peaking at about 1.4 million women. Throughout much of women’s lives, between 20% and 40% of their close kin have disability. These findings show that disability is not only an individual experience but also a relational exposure amplified by kinship structures. Exposure to kin disability constitutes a hidden source of inequality that accumulates over the life course and intersects with gender and socioeconomic inequalities.