Assessing the validity of microsimulated kinship networks using Swedish population registers

Estimating kinship networks is a data-intensive undertaking, typically conducted using empirical sources or demographic models. While empirical data, like population registers, provide a realistic picture, they are limited by scarcity, truncation, and survivorship bias. Demographic models, including microsimulation, require less detailed data but often minimally address population heterogeneity, family similarity, and multipartner fertility. This study assesses the validity of kinship networks derived from SOCSIM microsimulation by comparing kin counts (from grandparents to grandchildren) for Swedish cohorts born between 1915 and 2017 with register-based counts. The results show that microsimulation closely approximates mean kin numbers and reasonably reflects parity distributions. While it underestimates kin for recent cohorts unaffected by truncation, it more accurately captures kin for older cohorts missing parent–child links. These findings validate the use of microsimulation as a valuable tool for reconstructing kinship when only aggregate data are available, supporting its application in historical and projected kinship analyses.