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Can New Light Rail Reduce Personal Vehicle Carbon Emissions? A Before-After, Experimental-Control Evaluation in Los Angeles

Author

Listed:
  • Boarnet, Marlon G.
  • Wang, Xize

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Houston, Douglas

Abstract

This paper uses a before-after, experimental-control group method to evaluate the impacts of the newly-opened Expo light rail transit line in Los Angeles on personal vehicle GHG emissions. We applied the California Air Resources Board’s EMFAC 2011 emission model to estimate the amount of daily average CO2 emissions from personal vehicle travel for 160 households across two waves, before and after the light rail opened. The 160 households were part of an experimental – control group research design. Approximately half of the households live within ½ mile of new Expo light rail stations (the experimental group) and the balance of the sampled households live beyond ½ mile from Expo light rail stations (the control group). Households tracked odometer mileage for all household vehicles for seven days in two sample waves, before the Expo Line opened (fall, 2011) and after the Expo Line opened (fall, 2012). Our analysis indicates that opening the Expo Line had a statistically significant impact on average daily CO2 emissions from motor vehicles. We found that the CO2 emission of households who reside within ½ mile of an Expo Line station was 27.17 percent smaller than those living more than ½ mile from a station after the opening of the light rail, while no significant difference exists before the opening. A difference-in-difference model suggests that the opening of the Expo Line is associated with 3,145 grams less of household vehicle CO2 emissions per day as a treatment effect. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the emission reduction effect is also present when the experimental group of households is redefined to be those living within a kilometer from the new light rail stations.

Suggested Citation

  • Boarnet, Marlon G. & Wang, Xize & Houston, Douglas, 2017. "Can New Light Rail Reduce Personal Vehicle Carbon Emissions? A Before-After, Experimental-Control Evaluation in Los Angeles," SocArXiv qvwpg, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:qvwpg
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/qvwpg
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Wang, Kailai & Wang, Xize, 2021. "Generational Differences in Automobility: Comparing America's Millennials and Gen Xers Using Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," SocArXiv n3a9e, Center for Open Science.
    7. Liu Yang & Yuanqing Wang & Yujun Lian & Xin Dong & Jianhong Liu & Yuanyuan Liu & Zhouhao Wu, 2023. "Rational planning strategies of urban structure, metro, and car use for reducing transport carbon dioxide emissions in developing cities," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6987-7010, July.
    8. Piras, Francesco & Sottile, Eleonora & Tuveri, Giovanni & Meloni, Italo, 2022. "Does the joint implementation of hard and soft transportation policies lead to travel behavior change? An experimental analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
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    10. Blanco, Hilda & Wikstrom, Alexander, 2018. "Transit-Oriented Development Opportunities Among Failing Malls," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3h62q04h, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    11. Liu Yang & Yuanqing Wang & Yujun Lian & Zhongming Guo & Yuanyuan Liu & Zhouhao Wu & Tieyue Zhang, 2022. "Key Factors, Planning Strategy and Policy for Low-Carbon Transport Development in Developing Cities of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-14, October.
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    13. Kamruzzaman, Liton & Currie, Graham & Vu, Hai L. & Miller, Eric J. & Vickerman, Roger, 2025. "Place-based neighbourhood planning approaches to net zero transport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Shengyan Xu & Yibo Chen & Miao Liu, 2025. "Can Urban Rail Transit in China Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions? An Investigation of the Resource Allocation Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-32, April.
    15. Yang, Shuo & Zhou, Leyu & Liu, Chang & Sun, Shan & Guo, Liang & Sun, Xiaoli, 2024. "Examining multiscale built environment interventions to mitigate travel-related carbon emissions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    16. Zhesong Hao & Ying Peng, 2022. "Comparing Nonlinear and Threshold Effects of Bus Stop Proximity on Transit Use and Carbon Emissions in Developing Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
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