IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/nk7ja_v1.html

The Non-Binarity of Artificial Intelligence Global Competition: 2018-2025

Author

Listed:
  • Dorfs, Wiebke
  • Hampel, Maximilian
  • Bryson, Joanna J.

    (Hertie School)

Abstract

Technological progress plays a crucial role in international relations. In particular, innovation has long been theorized as instrumental to power transitions. It is therefore unsurprising that the return of China as a global superpower and its technological advances has triggered considerable discussion. One narrative that has emerged is that of a binary "AI Cold War" competition between China and the US, similar to the 1947-1991 competition between nuclear superpowers. Another though is that the digital and information revolutions should facilitate technology and therefore power diffusion. Here we examine the claim of a binary competition, examining the state and trajectory of global AI competition for the years 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. We use AI patents defended globally in the WIPO database and the market capitalization of the companies holding them as proxies for innovation and market power. We find that the binary narrative underestimates the strength of other actors globally, notably but not exclusively the European Union and Japan. These are comparable to China, and on the innovation metric with the US. In terms of market power, the US is a significant outlier, with an order of magnitude more capital concentration. Our research therefore indicates that any binary AI cold war narrative is not data-led.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorfs, Wiebke & Hampel, Maximilian & Bryson, Joanna J., 2026. "The Non-Binarity of Artificial Intelligence Global Competition: 2018-2025," SocArXiv nk7ja_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:nk7ja_v1
    DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/nk7ja_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/6a9ae1c934f3907cea402757/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31235/osf.io/nk7ja_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikołaj Malinowski & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2017. "Income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(3), pages 375-404, September.
    2. Keith Rankin, 1992. "New Zealand'S Gross National Product: 1859–1939," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 38(1), pages 49-69, March.
    3. Ola Honningdal Grytten, 2015. "Norwegian gross domestic product by industry 1830 - 1930," Working Paper 2015/19, Norges Bank.
    4. Jos� Antonio Ocampo & Juliana Vallejo, 2012. "Economic Growth, Equity and Human Development in Latin America," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 107-133, February.
    5. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    6. Abad, Leticia Arroyo & van Zanden, Jan Luiten, 2016. "Growth under Extractive Institutions? Latin American Per Capita GDP in Colonial Times," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1182-1215, December.
    7. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2023. "Italy in the Great Divergence: What Can We Learn from Engel’s Law?," CEIS Research Paper 562, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Jul 2023.
    8. Phyllis Deane, 1968. "New Estimates Of Gross National Product For The United Kingdom 1830–1914," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 14(2), pages 95-112, June.
    9. Schankerman, Mark & Pakes, Ariel, 1986. "Estimates of the Value of Patent Rights in European Countries during the Post-1950 Period," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1052-1076, December.
    10. Bertola, Luis & Ocampo, Jose Antonio, 2012. "The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199662142.
    11. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui & Li, David Daokui, 2018. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 955-1000, December.
    12. Rajesh K. Aggarwal & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Stock Market Manipulations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1915-1954, July.
    13. Ward, Marianne & Devereux, John, 2012. "The Road Not Taken: Pre-Revolutionary Cuban Living Standards in Comparative Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 104-132, March.
    14. Alexander Eckstein, 1955. "National Income And Capital Formation In Hungary, 1900–1950," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 5(1), pages 152-223, December.
    15. Markevich, Andrei & Harrison, Mark, 2011. "Great War, Civil War, and Recovery: Russia's National Income, 1913 to 1928," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 672-703, September.
    16. Malanima, Paolo, 2011. "The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 169-219, August.
    17. repec:idb:brikps:439 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simon Mair, 2025. "The Relationship Between Energy and Capital: Insights from The Wealth of Nations," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 244-259, June.
    2. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    3. Adolfo Meisel-Roca & Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2018. "Más de cien años de avances en el nivel de vida: El caso de Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 46, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Correction to: Comparative european institutions and the little divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 295-295, June.
    5. Philipp Koch & Viktor Stojkoski & César A. Hidalgo, 2024. "Augmenting the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates through machine learning," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 121(39), pages 2402060121-, September.
    6. Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri & Adolfo Meisel-Roca & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2019. "More than 100 years of improvements in living standards: the case of Colombia," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(3), pages 323-366, September.
    7. Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri & Adolfo Meisel-Roca & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2017. "More than One Hundred Years of Improvements in Living Standards: the Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1027, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Spinola, Danilo, 2023. "Instability constraints and development traps: an empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    9. Rok Spruk, 2019. "The rise and fall of Argentina," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-40, December.
    10. Broadberry, Stephen & Korchmina, Elena, 2024. "Catching-Up and Falling Behind: Russian Economic Growth, 1690s–1880s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 997-1028, December.
    11. Paolo Malanima, 2020. "The limiting factor: energy, growth, and divergence, 1820–1913," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 486-512, May.
    12. Matthias Blum & Cristián Ducoing & Eoin McLaughlin, 2016. "Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-15, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    13. repec:ehl:lserod:108563 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui, 2026. "Regional variation of GDP per head within China, 1080–1850: Implications for the great divergence debate," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2021. "Augmented human development in the age of globalization," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(4), pages 946-975, November.
    16. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2019. "Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    17. Gabriel Porcile, 2024. "Rethinking International Relations and Development in Times of Uncertainty," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 331-347, March.
    18. Javier Rodríguez Weber, 2018. "Alta desigualdad en América Latina: desde cuándo y por qué," Documentos de trabajo 51, Programa de Historia Económica, FCS, Udelar.
    19. Mario Cimoli & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Gabriel Porcile & Nunzia Saporito, 2020. "Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 740-761, October.
    20. Mendez-Guerra, Carlos, 2014. "On the Development Gap between Latin America and East Asia: Welfare, Efficiency, and Misallocation," MPRA Paper 62588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2024. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:nk7ja_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://socarxiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.