Likely decline in the number of farms globally by the middle of the century

Farm number and size are deemed important for a variety of social and environmental outcomes, including yields, input use efficiencies, biodiversity, crop diversity, climate change, and concentration of power in food systems. Using a model incorporating theoretical drivers of the creation and consolidation of farms within countries, I historically reconstruct the number of farms on Earth over 1969-2013 and predict their future evolution. I show that under current development trajectories the number of farms globally will likely decline from the current 616M (95% CIs 495M-779M) in 2020 to 272M (95% CIs 200M-377M) by the end of the 21st century, with average farm size doubling. In some regions, Europe and Northern America, we will see a continued decline from recent history, whereas in other regions, including Asia, Middle East & North Africa, Oceania, and Latin America and the Caribbean, we will see a turning-point from farm creation to widespread consolidation. The turning point also occurs for Sub-Saharan Africa, but much later in the century. This world in which significantly fewer large farms replace numerous smaller ones carries major rewards and risks for the human species and the food systems which support it.