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Efficiency, Elasticity, and Disruption: A Mechanistic Framework for Socio-Technical System Transitions

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Listed:
  • de Souza, Vitor Miranda

    (Technische Universität München)

  • Figueirinhas, Diogo
  • Fath, Brian D.
  • Nilsson, Fredrik

Abstract

Efficiency improvements are persistently accompanied by demand expansion and increased resource throughput, systematically undermining sustainability strategies in operations and supply chain management. While existing explanations rely on behavioural assumptions or empirical correction factors rather than structural accounts, this paper develops a first-order mechanistic formulation of efficiency-induced demand expansion, introducing system elasticity εsys as a structural property of socio-technical configuration. Building on and generalising Ayres and Warr’s framework, we derive the service relationship S ∝ η^(ε_sys−1) and its resource corollary R ∝ η^(ε_sys−2), establishing two sustainability thresholds: ε_sys > 1 for service expansion and ε_sys > 2 for absolute resource growth. Two independent empirical cases – the 19th-century steam engine and contemporary computing – yield ε_sys ≈ 3.5, consistent with the backfire condition. The formulation reframes the operational challenge from governing resource efficiency to governing service elasticity.

Suggested Citation

  • de Souza, Vitor Miranda & Figueirinhas, Diogo & Fath, Brian D. & Nilsson, Fredrik, 2026. "Efficiency, Elasticity, and Disruption: A Mechanistic Framework for Socio-Technical System Transitions," SocArXiv kn5s4_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:kn5s4_v1
    DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/kn5s4_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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