Spatial mobility and the risk of dropping out of vocational education and training in Germany: Costs, resources, and returns

Vocational education and training (VET) dropout disrupts school-to-work transitions. While spatial mobility is an important strategy for accessing VET, little is known about how it relates to subsequent dropout. Drawing on a cost-benefit perspective, this study examines whether first-year VET dropout differs by spatial mobility and whether these differences vary with resources available to bear mobility-related costs and returns that may offset them. We use representative longitudinal data from the German National Educational Panel Study linked to administrative geospatial data. Logistic regression models distinguish non-mobile students from those mobile within and between regional labor markets (RLMs) and assess heterogeneity by parental socioeconomic status (SES), VET wages, realized occupational aspirations, regional attractiveness, and regional person-environment match. Predicted dropout probabilities are approximately three percentage points higher for mobility within RLMs and four points higher for mobility between RLMs than for no mobility. These mobility-related differences decrease with increasing parental SES for both mobility types. Higher VET wages correspond to smaller dropout differences for mobility within RLMs, whereas greater realization of occupational aspirations corresponds to smaller differences for mobility between RLMs. Higher regional attractiveness shows a similar pattern only for mobility within RLMs, while higher regional person-environment match coincides with smaller dropout differences for both mobility types. Overall, mobility-related dropout differences vary with available resources and realized returns. The social patterning of mobility-related dropout differences may contribute to inequalities in school-to-work transitions, underscoring the importance of considering spatial mobility and regional contexts in research on youths’ educational decision-making.