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Security Threats and Support for the Far Right: Evidence from Russian Aggression in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Alrababah, Ala
  • De Vries, Catherine Eunice

    (Bocconi University)

  • Myrick, Rachel

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Do external security threats reduce support for far-right parties? Existing scholarship suggests such threats should weaken extreme parties by generating rally effects, shifting attention to foreign policy, and increasing demand for experienced leadership. We develop a theoretical framework distinguishing these channels and test them in the context of Russian aggression in Europe. In Study 1, leveraging an unexpected event during survey fieldwork in the European Social Survey, we find no evidence that Russia's invasion of Ukraine reduced support for far-right parties. In Study 2, a pre-registered survey experiment in Germany, we expose respondents to a scenario of US withdrawal from NATO and a Russian invasion of an EU member state. Threats increase demand for competent leadership and boost incumbent support by about 4 points, but do not reduce far-right support, which proves remarkably sticky. Together, these findings show that security shocks can reshape mainstream competition without eroding far-right support.

Suggested Citation

  • Alrababah, Ala & De Vries, Catherine Eunice & Myrick, Rachel, 2026. "Security Threats and Support for the Far Right: Evidence from Russian Aggression in Europe," SocArXiv 9m4jf_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:9m4jf_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/9m4jf_v1
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