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House price expectations of households: A preliminary analysis of new survey data

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People's expectations of future house prices appear to be an important influence on house prices and the volume of house sales (Wheaton 1990; Berkovec and Goodman 1996). For example, Case and Shiller (2006) argue that expectations played a role in producing California's house price boom in the late 1980s. If house price expectations matter, then how people form those expectations, and how expectations respond to different shocks (for example, an unexpected increase in population) also matters. The Reserve Bank has often referred to the importance of house price expectations but unlike many other variables we have had little detailed data on these expectations for analysis.

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  • Graham Howard & Özer Karagedikli, 2012. "House price expectations of households: A preliminary analysis of new survey data," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2012/01
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Analytical%20notes/2012/AN2012-1.pdf
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    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The behavior of home buyers in boom and post-boom markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 29-46.
    2. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-1292, December.
    3. Emmanuel De Veirman & Michael Reddell, 2011. "Towards understanding what and when households spent," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 74, pages 1-11, December.
    4. James A. Berkovec & John L. Goodman, 1996. "Turnover as a Measure of Demand for Existing Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 421-440, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).

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