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How Does Job Loss Affect the Timing of Retirement?

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  • Sewin Chan
  • Ann Huff Stevens

Abstract

We use the Health and Retirement Study to examine the effects of job loss on factors affecting retirement incentives, including earnings, assets and pensions. We then estimate models of the retirement decision, which take into account the incentive to retire and any additional effects of displacement that are not captured by retirement incentives. There are substantial effects of displacement on retirement incentives as the result of changes to both earnings and pensions. Displacement significantly increases the probability of retirement, but only a small fraction of the displacement-induced changes in retirement behavior and labor force participation are the result of workers responding to these altered retirement incentives.

Suggested Citation

  • Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 2002. "How Does Job Loss Affect the Timing of Retirement?," NBER Working Papers 8780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samwick, Andrew A., 1998. "New evidence on pensions, social security, and the timing of retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 207-236, November.
    2. James F. Moore & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1997. "Projected Retirement Wealth and Savings Adequacy in the Health and Retirement Study," NBER Working Papers 6240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity versus Predictive Validity," NBER Chapters,in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 21-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Olivia S. Mitchell & Jan Olson & Thomas Steinmeier, "undated". "Construction of the Earnings and Benefits File (EBF) for Use with the Health and Retirement Survey," Pension Research Council Working Papers 98-19, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2001. "Job Loss and Employment Patterns of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 484-521, April.
    7. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1991. "Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 319-324, March.
    8. Kathleen M. McGarry & Andrew Davenport, 1998. "Pensions and the Distribution of Wealth," NBER Chapters,in: Frontiers in the Economics of Aging, pages 463-486 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1990. "Bridge Jobs and Partial Retirement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 482-501, October.
    10. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 1999. "Effects of pensions on savings: analysis with data from the health and retirement study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 271-324, June.
    11. Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    12. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1997. "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hanel, Barbara, 2010. "Financial incentives to postpone retirement and further effects on employment -- Evidence from a natural experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 474-486, June.
    2. Courtney C. Coile & Phillip B. Levine, 2007. "Labor Market Shocks and Retirement: Do Government Programs Matter?," NBER Chapters,in: Public Policy and Retirement, Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), pages 1902-1919 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. D'Costa, Sabine & Overman, Henry G., 2014. "The urban wage growth premium: Sorting or learning?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 168-179.
    4. Martin Salm, 2009. "Does job loss cause ill health?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(9), pages 1075-1089.
    5. Salm, M, 2008. "Job loss does not cause ill health," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 08/16, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Coile Courtney C & Levine Phillip B, 2011. "The Market Crash and Mass Layoffs: How the Current Economic Crisis May Affect Retirement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42, April.
    7. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Stillman, Steven, 2006. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle-Aged Individuals," IZA Discussion Papers 2449, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Joelle Saad-Lessler & Teresa Ghilarducci, 2013. "New Policies for an Older Unemployed Population," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2013-3, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    9. Tibor Czegledi & Endre Szabo & Melinda Tir & Andras Simonovits, 2016. "Retirement rules in Hungary: gainers and losers," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1631, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    10. repec:fip:fedlrv:00084 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Erik Granseth & Wolfgang Keck & Wolfgang Nagl & Melinda Tir & Andras Simonovits, 2016. "Negative correlation between retirement age and contribution length?," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1633, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    12. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 2008. "What You Don't Know Can't Help You: Pension Knowledge and Retirement Decision-Making," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 253-266, May.
    13. Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
    14. Paul Marmora & Moritz Ritter, 2015. "Unemployment and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 274-290, September.
    15. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Reed, Robert, 2003. "Age-Specific Employment Policies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10256, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Reed, Robert, 2006. "Social Security and Intergenerational Redistribution," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12661, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Carrington, William J. & Fallick, Bruce C., 2014. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Working Paper 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. repec:aka:aoecon:v:67:y:2017:i:3:p:359-387 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kevin F. Hallock, 2009. "Job Loss and the Fraying of the Implicit Employment Contract," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 69-93, Fall.
    20. Alicia H. Munnell & Steven Sass & Mauricio Soto & Natalia Zhivan, 2006. "Has the Displacement of Older Workers Increased?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-17, Center for Retirement Research, revised Sep 2006.
    21. Leora Friedberg & Michael Owyang & Anthony Webb, 2008. "Identifying Local Differences in Retirement Patterns," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2008-18, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2008.
    22. Salm, M., 2009. "Does job loss cause ill health?," Other publications TiSEM 314436db-9957-4912-ba47-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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