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The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates: Theory and Tests

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  • Prakash Apte
  • Piet Sercu
  • Raman Uppal

Abstract

We characterize the equilibrium exchange rate in a general equilibrium economy without imposing strong restrictions on the output processes, preferences, or commodity market imperfections. The nominal exchange rate is determined by differences in initial wealths the currencies of richer countries tend to be overvalued by PPP standards and by differences of marginal indirect utilities of total nominal spending. Changes in the exchange rate mirror differences in growth rates of real spending weighted by relative risk-aversion (which can be time-varying and can differ across countries), and in the case of non-homothetic utility functions, differences in inflation rates computed from marginal spending weights. Thus, standard regression or cointegration tests of PPP suffer from missing-variables biases and ignore variations in risk aversions across countries and over time. We also present cointegration tests of the version of the model with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and homothetic preferences. When nominal spending is given an independent role (next to prices) in the short-term dynamics, both PPP and the CRRA model become acceptable.

Suggested Citation

  • Prakash Apte & Piet Sercu & Raman Uppal, 1996. "The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates: Theory and Tests," NBER Working Papers 5748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5748
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Helg & Massimiliano Serati, "undated". "Does the PPP need the UIP?," Working Papers 97, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Rodolfo Helg & Massimiliano Serati, 2000. "The speed of adjustment to PPP: is there any puzzle?," LIUC Papers in Economics 74, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    3. P. Sercu, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and Purchasing Power Parity in Arbitrage-Free Models of Asset Pricing," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(5), pages 825-854.
    4. Ng, David T., 2004. "The international CAPM when expected returns are time-varying," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-230, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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