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Complementarities and Comovements

  • John Shea

Short-run interindustry comovement may be due either to common shocks or to complementarities that propagate shocks across sectors. This paper assesses the importance of input-output linkages, aggregate activity spillovers, and local activity spillovers to comovement in postwar US manufacturing. I find that input-output linkages and local activity spillovers are important to comovement, while aggregate activity spillovers are not important. I find that complementarities are important to aggregate volatility, even after I remove observable aggregate shocks from the data. Local spillovers are particularly important, explaining between 15 and 36 percent of manufacturing employment volatility.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5305.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5305.

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Date of creation: Oct 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Shea, John S. "Complementarities And Comovements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2002, v34(2,May), 412-434.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5305
Note: ME
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  1. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  2. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Building Blocks of Market Clearing Business Cycle Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 247-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Shea, J., 1995. "Comovements in Cities," Working papers 9522, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. Basu, S. & Fernald, J.G., 1993. "Are Apparent Productive Spillovers a Figment of Specification Error," Papers 93-22, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
  5. Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1003-26, October.
  6. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1993. "Evidence on Macroeconomic Complementarities," NBER Working Papers 4577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Shea, John, 1993. "The Input-Output Approach to Instrument Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 145-55, April.
  9. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1990. "Sources of output fluctuations in the United States during the inter-war and post-war years," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 523-551, October.
  10. P. Diamond, 1980. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Working papers 268, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  12. Bartelsman, Eric J & Caballero, Ricardo J & Lyons, Richard K, 1994. "Customer- and Supplier-Driven Externalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1075-84, September.
  13. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-92, June.
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