Expected Changes in the Workforce and Implications for Labor Markets
This paper examines the likely effects of the aging of the baby boom on labor force attachment, unemployment, and wages. Labor market trends between now and 2020 are the focus of analysis, when the majority of the baby boom generation will confront its retirement decision. We begin by reviewing past labor force trends and discussing important limitations of existing projection methods. Key elements needed to project the consequences of the demographic shock facing the labor market are identified. The task of developing a fully specified economic model to examine the effect of the aging of the baby boom on the labor market is as yet incomplete. On the basis of the best available evidence, we suggest the following conclusions can be drawn: The trend towards earlier retirement will slow and perhaps reverse in the next few decades. Unemployment should fall among older workers and the aggregate full-employment unemployment rate should also decline as the baby boom ages. The aging of the baby boom will not depress wages substantially, either for older workers or for other demographic groups.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1991|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Levine, Philip B. and Olivia S. Mitchell. "Expected Changes in the Work- Force and Implications for Labor Markets." Demography and Retirement: The 21st Century. Edited by A. Rappaport and R. Scheiber. Pension Research Concil, Praeger, 1993, P. 73-96.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979.
"The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(3), pages 289-318.
- Richard B. Freeman, 1979. "The Effect of Demographic Factors on Age-Earnings Profiles," NBER Working Papers 0316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard V. Burkhauser & Joseph F. Quinn, 1983. "Is Mandatory Retirement Overrated? Evidence from the 1970s," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(3), pages 337-358.
- repec:hoo:wpaper:e-88-34 is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael Podgursky & Paul Swaim, 1987. "Job Displacement and Earnings Loss: Evidence from the Displaced Worker Survey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 41(1), pages 17-29, October.
- Hutchens, Robert, 1986. "Delayed Payment Contracts and a Firm's Propensity to Hire Older Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-57, October.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990.
"Efficient Windows and Labor Force Reduction,"
NBER Working Papers
3369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1981.
"Partial Retirement and the Analysis of Retirement Behavior,"
NBER Working Papers
0763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1984. "Partial Retirement and the Analysis of Retirement Behavior," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 37(3), pages 403-415, April.
- Levine, Phillip B & Mitchell, Olivia S, 1988. "The Baby Boom's Legacy: Relative Wages in the Twenty-First Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 66-69, May.
- Edward P. Lazear, 1988.
"Adjusting to an Aging Labor Force,"
NBER Working Papers
2802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivia S. Mitchell & Rebecca A. Luzadis, 1988. "Changes in Pension Incentives through Time," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 100-108, October.
- Marie Howland & George E. Peterson, 1988. "Labor Market Conditions and the Reemployment of Displaced Workers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 109-122, October.
- Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 1991. "Changing the Social Security Rules for Work after 65," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 44(4), pages 733-745, July.
- Robert M. Hutchens, 1988. "Do Job Opportunities Decline with Age?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 42(1), pages 89-99, October.
- Joseph F. Quinn & Richard V. Burkhauser & Daniel A. Myers, 1990. "Passing the Torch: The Influence of Economic Incentives on Work and Retirement," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number pt, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3743. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.