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Estimating Causal Effects of Fertility on Life Course Outcomes: Evidence Using A Dyadic Genetic Instrumental Variable Approach

Author

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  • Boyan Zheng
  • Qiongshi Lu
  • Jason Fletcher

Abstract

The causal effects of fertility are a central focus in the social sciences, but the analysis is challenged by the endogeneity of fertility choices. Earlier work has proposed several “natural experiments” from twin births or gender composition of earlier births to assess whether having more children affects adults’ outcomes, though there are limitations to using rare (twins) and weak (gender composition) instrumental variables for fertility. This paper proposes a new “natural experiment” approach to assessing the causal effects of fertility by measuring the combination of couples’ genetics in predicting fertility—a dyadic genetic instrumental variable, where the key idea (exclusion restriction) is that the interactions of the couple’s genetics that shift the likelihood of fertility is unknown to the couples. We use a nationally representative sample of couples to examine the long-lasting effects of fertility on older adults’ life outcomes, including labor market outcomes, personality traits, and subjective wellbeing. We find that fertility reduces females’ extraversion and years of working and some evidence indicates that fertility reduces both males’ and females’ lifetime number of jobs worked.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyan Zheng & Qiongshi Lu & Jason Fletcher, 2023. "Estimating Causal Effects of Fertility on Life Course Outcomes: Evidence Using A Dyadic Genetic Instrumental Variable Approach," NBER Working Papers 30955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30955
    Note: AG EH LS
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason Fletcher & Norma Padrón, 2016. "The effects of teenage childbearing on adult soft skills development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 883-910, July.
    2. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1980. "Testing the Quantity-Quality Fertility Model: The Use of Twins as a Natural Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 227-240, January.
    3. Fletcher, Jason M. & Polos, Jessica, 2017. "Nonmarital and Teen Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 10833, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Helmut Farbmacher & Raphael Guber & Johan Vikström, 2018. "Increasing the credibility of the twin birth instrument," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 457-472, April.
    5. Hyunbae Chun & Jeungil Oh, 2002. "An instrumental variable estimate of the effect of fertility on the labour force participation of married women," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 631-634.
    6. Jason M. Fletcher & Barbara L. Wolfe, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Consequences of Teenage Childbearing: Evidence Using the Timing of Pregnancy Outcomes and Community Fixed Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    7. Rachel Margolis & Mikko Myrskylä, 2011. "A Global Perspective on Happiness and Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 29-56, March.
    8. Jule Specht & Boris Egloff & Stefan C. Schmukle, 2011. "Stability and Change of Personality across the Life Course: The Impact of Age and Major Life Events on Mean-Level and Rank-Order Stability of the Big Five," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 377, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Fletcher, Jason M. & Kim, Jinho, 2019. "The effect of sibship size on non-cognitive Skills: Evidence from natural experiments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-43.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J29 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Other

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