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Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election

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  • James A. Brander

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of events.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Brander, 1989. "Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election," NBER Working Papers 3073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3073
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Espen Eckbo, 1986. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control: The Canadian Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 236-260, May.
    2. David Cox & Richard G. Harris, 1986. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact on Canada of Sectoral Free Trade with the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 377-394, August.
    3. Robin W. Boadway & John M. Treddenick, 1978. "A General Equilibrium Computation of the Effects of the Canadian Tariff Structure," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(3), pages 424-446, August.
    4. Frey, Bruno S., 1978. "Politico-economic models and cycles," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 203-220, April.
    5. Brander, James A., 1981. "Intra-industry trade in identical commodities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Hamilton, Robert W & Whalley, John, 1985. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 446-455, August.
    7. Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-973, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jen Baggs & James A Brander, 2006. "Trade liberalization, profitability, and financial leverage," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(2), pages 196-211, March.

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