Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election
This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of events.
|Date of creation:||Aug 1989|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 24, No. 4, (November 1991).|
|Note:||ME ITI IFM|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frey, Bruno S., 1976.
"Politico-economic models and cycle,"
Discussion Papers, Series I
83, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
- B. Espen Eckbo, 1986. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control: The Canadian Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 236-60, May.
- Brander, James A., 1981.
"Intra-industry trade in identical commodities,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, February.
- Krugman, Paul R, 1981. "Intraindustry Specialization and the Gains from Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 959-73, October.
- Hamilton, Robert W & Whalley, John, 1985. "Geographically Discriminatory Trade Arrangements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 446-55, August.
- David Cox & Richard G. Harris, 1986. "A Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact on Canada of Sectoral Free Trade with the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 377-94, August.
- Robin W. Boadway & John M. Treddenick, 1978. "A General Equilibrium Computation of the Effects of the Canadian Tariff Structure," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(3), pages 424-46, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3073. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.